Global Economic Outlook Weathering the energy shock We expect the global economy to remain resilient in the face of the energy shock. In Asia, many governments will continue to shield their economies from the worst of higher energy prices. In most DMs... 30th September 2026 · 46 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone National HICP (September 2026) Data released for Germany, France, Italy and Spain point to an increase in euro-zone headline inflation from 3.2% in August to 3.7% in September. They also suggest that the indirect effects of higher... 30th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (Sep. 2026) The sharp rise in headline inflation in Poland to 4.0% y/y this month, from 3.4% y/y in August, was driven by food and energy. As a result, we don’t think the MPC will shift towards rate hikes at its... 30th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q2 2026 Final) The upward revision to real GDP growth in Q2, from 0.4% q/q to 0.5% q/q, suggests that the economy has been a bit more resilient to higher energy prices in the first half of the year than previously... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Higher yields to weigh on property values in the near term Higher interest rates brought about by the ongoing energy shock are likely to push up prime property yields and hit capital values in the coming quarters, though rental growth should remain resilient... 29th September 2026 · 24 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (September) The euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Indicator fell slightly in September but was still at a level consistent with steady growth. With price pressures in services reasonably well contained we still... 29th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (Aug. 26) 29th September 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight EM credit spreads mask lingering fiscal risks Measures of EM fiscal risk premia are very low, which partly reflects genuine policy improvements in some high-risk economies. But a few countries such as Mozambique and Tunisia still face the risk of... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Aug. 2026) It seems unlikely that households will continue to fund increases in their real spending by borrowing more and reducing their saving rates, as they did in August, for much longer. And the further fall... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Housing headwinds grow despite "Your First Home" scheme We suspect the “Your First Home” scheme announced by the Prime Minster over the weekend will boost both housing transactions and housing starts from 2027. But this effect will probably be more than... 28th September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Near-term pain, better times ahead The ongoing energy price shock is a further temporary setback to the UK economy rather than a permanent blow. If we’re right that over the next year the economy and labour market won’t be strong... 28th September 2026 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK’s productivity malaise ending? The recent revival in productivity seems to be driven by weaker growth in hours worked, rather than stronger GDP growth or a widespread AI-related boost. As a result, we think it’s too soon to... 25th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Further diesel shock on the way? President Trump’s proposed ban on diesel exports has the potential to cause another diesel shock in Europe in the coming weeks – pushing prices up by as much as another 50%. While we suspect any ban... 25th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary's new inflation target, Romania's fiscal mess The Hungarian central bank’s announcement of a new, lower inflation target this week puts the country one step further along the path to euro adoption. But arguably the bigger challenge in achieving... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Election worries will keep pressure on French bonds Global bond markets have taken a big hit in recent months, but French government bonds have been singled out. We think this makes sense given the widening fiscal deficit and the growing risks around... 24th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further rises in property yields are on the way A higher path for interest rates means we now expect euro-zone all-property yields to rise by 15-20bps over the next 6-12 months. The risk of increases appears greatest in Paris, where the property-to... 24th September 2026 · 3 mins read
