UK Housing Market Update Housing weakness not over yet Although the housing market wasn’t quite as weak in August as in recent months, the risk is that a further rebound in mortgage rates and/or speculation of tax rises ahead of the Budget dampens demand... 10th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Focus Which global self-storage markets are ready for blast off? The Nordics and Switzerland stand out amongst a set of 19 global self-storage markets for their potential growth over the next 5-10 years. These markets will see a reasonably high rate of home-moving... 9th September 2026 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% may be followed by communications that take a more cautious line, reflecting the strength of the latest inflation... 9th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Why QT may influence gilt yields for years to come A further slowdown of Quantitative Tightening (QT) may relieve some of the recent upward pressure on gilt yields, but only temporarily. And although QT is making the public finances less sensitive to... 8th September 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) The euro-zone economy is growing at a steady pace. While Spain is still the clear outperformer among the larger countries, Germany has finally returned to growth, but France has stalled. Business... 7th September 2026 · 0 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Lloyd’s House Prices (Aug. 2026) The surprise 0.2% m/m drop in house prices in August on the Lloyds measure (consensus and CE +0.1% m/m) raises the risk that prices rise more slowly in response to high mortgage rates and uncertainty... 7th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Respite for bonds may be limited and uneven We expect German bunds to fare well in the medium term, almost regardless of what the ECB says this week. But US Treasuries aren’t likely to get the same relief. 7th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets turn increasingly hawkish in Poland The strength of the GDP and inflation figures out of Poland this week, alongside rising energy prices, have led investors to price in 75bp of interest rate hikes over the next year. While our base... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Global developments dampen PM’s policy ambitions The latest rises in gilt yields and UK market interest rate expectations have reduced Chancellor Healey’s headroom against his main fiscal rule from £23.6bn in March to around £15.0bn. And higher... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What should the ECB make of the bond sell-off? The ECB is unlikely to be overly concerned by the recent sell-off in bond markets, not least because spreads generally remain low and are not rising rapidly. On Monday, euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 is... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July 2026) The fall in euro-zone retail sales in July was the largest monthly decline in over a year and suggests that consumption made a weak start to Q3 following what looks like a decent rise in Q2. 4th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (August 26) The headline construction PMI nudged slightly lower in August following its strong bounce in July. At 44.3 it remains deep in contractionary territory, where it has languished since December 2024. 4th September 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: budget deficit casts a cloud over outperformance Poland’s economy is likely to remain a star performer in the EU this year and next, and our GDP growth forecasts are above the consensus. But the growing need for fiscal tightening after next year’s... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) With inflation and the resulting drag on households’ real incomes yet to peak, we doubt the surprising resilience of activity in the first half of the year will continue in the second half of this... 3rd September 2026 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to hike again, growing chance of more to come The ECB Governing Council looks certain to raise its deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5% next week. Further ahead, the outlook is becoming harder to call given the recent rise in energy prices. We are not... 3rd September 2026 · 7 mins read
