Chief Economist's Note China Shock 2.0: Key Messages This note summarises the key conclusions from our recent series on China Shock 2.0. The ongoing shock is not simply a repeat of the original China shock of the 2000s. China is once again increasing... 13th October 2026
Europe Economics Update EU-China hybrid deal a potential blueprint for future The EU-China deal on plug-in hybrids is another step to strengthen EU trade defences and also offers a blueprint for future deals, but it is still consistent with the EU moving in a targeted and... 12th October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Budget 2026 Preview - Unfinished fiscal business We think the Chancellor, John Healey, will opt for a compromise Budget on Wednesday 28th October, with limited implications for the economy and the markets. But this just delays the difficult... 12th October 2026 · 18 mins read
UK Economics Weekly When should Burnham call a general election? To the extent that the economy matters in determining the timing of general elections and their result, our economic forecasts and the government's tax and spending plans imply that 2028 looks like a... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Glapinski holding out … but rate hikes coming soon Governor Glapinski’s post-meeting press conference this week shifted in a more hawkish direction and we now think that some modest tightening of monetary policy (50bp in total) will be delivered in... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly G7’s oil plans are more peashooter than bazooka While the recent joint statement by the G7 succeeded in taking oil product export bans off the table for now , it stopped short of providing an additional boost to global petroleum supplies over and... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Le Pen the fiscal hawk? Merz the China hawk? Marine Le Pen's proposals this week to slash France's budget deficit are unlikely to have done much to bolster her fiscal credentials. Meanwhile, the joint letter by Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Central Asia’s boom comes with commodity risks This week we participated in an Emerging Markets Forum in Monaco, with a special focus on Central Asia. The key takeaway is that the growth outlook in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remains strong and... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China could weather tougher EU trade restrictions Even a sharp escalation in EU trade restrictions would have only a small impact on China’s economy. We estimate that an additional 20%-pt tariff on Chinese imports across strategically important... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s upcoming budget will test the bond rally Hungary’s government will announce its long-awaited fiscal review this month, and we expect a budget deficit projection around 5.5% of GDP for 2027, down from a shortfall of more than 7.0% this year... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chart Pack (October 2026) Higher interest rates are set to drag on global property values in the coming year, especially in lower-yielding euro-zone and APAC. US property values are likely to be most resilient this year but we... 8th October 2026 · 0 mins read
Commodities Update El Niño to reduce upside risks for EU natural gas prices By helping to limit heating demand and natural gas consumption in late-autumn and early-winter, an El Niño-driven warm start to the winter in Europe could reduce the extent to which European gas-users... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 2026) The latest rebound in mortgage rates and/or speculation of tax rises ahead of the Budget on 28th October dampened housing demand in September and this trend is likely to continue. With the risks to... 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market turmoil just the latest blow for French stocks Turmoil in France’s bond market has added more pain to an already miserable year for equities there, and we doubt a big recovery is likely anytime soon. 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2026) 7th October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update AI’s economic boost may arrive sooner than expected Recent data raise the possibility that the AI-related boost to the economy’s sustainable growth rate that we have been forecasting for the 2030s happens sooner. Read the full publication to find out... 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
