Housing headwinds grow despite "Your First Home" scheme

We suspect the “Your First Home” scheme announced by the Prime Minster over the weekend will boost both housing transactions and housing starts from 2027. But this effect will probably be more than offset by mortgage rates staying higher for longer than we previously thought. We now forecast house prices to rise by 2.5% in the year to Q4 2027 (3.5% previously) and by 3.0% in 2028 (3.0% previously).

We’re hosting a special in-person roundtable event at our London office on Wednesday 14th October to discuss what Chancellor Healey could announce in his first Budget on 28th October, which taxes may rise and what it all means for the economy and financial markets. (Register here.)