UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2026) The rise in the composite activity PMI in October to its highest level since the Iran war started suggests that activity, outside of the retail sector at least, is still pretty good. This will further... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2026) Although the euro-zone’s composite PMI fell in October, it remains consistent with modest positive growth, suggesting that the economy has remained resilient in the face of the energy shock. And while... 23rd October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence (Sep./Oct. 2026) October’s sharp fall in consumer confidence and the dip in retail sales volumes in September show that times are getting tougher for households just as the all-important festive period for retailers... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (October 2026) Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well and we expect regional growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on growth in Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the consensus on... 22nd October 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (October 2026) The Turkish central bank (CBRT) started its rate cutting cycle with a 100bp reduction in the one-week repo rate to 36.00% today and, with inflation pressures subsiding, we expect an additional 850bp... 22nd October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czechia: inflation pressures to drive further rate hikes With inflation pressures building, labour cost growth remaining high and credit growth strong, the conditions appear to be in place for the Czech central bank (CNB) to continue its tightening cycle at... 22nd October 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tight supply to sustain industrial rents in main German hubs The unusually low share of take-up in the main German industrial hubs appears to reflect a shortage of available space rather than weak demand. While space under construction is rising, this is not... 22nd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily France’s woes put Gilts in a better light Gilts have been out of the spotlight of late as investors’ focus has been on the US and France and it is likely to stay that way as the Chancellor delivers a low-key Budget next week. We expect Gilt... 21st October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) kept interest rates on hold at 3.25% as expected today and we think it will adopt a more cautious stance towards further easing going forward. This points to perhaps one more... 21st October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Jackdaw will have little macroeconomic impact The UK government’s decision to allow production at the Jackdaw North Sea gas field is unlikely to have a material impact on the UK economy. It should provide a modest boost to domestic gas production... 21st October 2026 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB will hike only once more The latest evidence suggests that the euro-zone economy remains fairly resilient in the face of the Iran war and that, despite elevated energy prices, underlying price and wage pressures have not... 21st October 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Forward guidance is not dead: here’s what it tells us For all the talk of the “death of forward guidance”, central banks are still providing a clear steer of how policy will respond under given circumstances. If the energy shock fades as we assume, the... 21st October 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices & Public Finances (Sep. 2026) The rise in CPI inflation from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September (consensus 3.4%, CE forecast 3.6%) mostly reflected higher fuel prices. There were also tentative signs that higher energy prices are... 21st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily French sovereign bonds not OAT of the woods While renewed hopes of a peace in the Middle East and lower energy prices have brought some relief to government bond markets today, the widening of the spread between French sovereign bonds and those... 20th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) decided to leave its policy rate unchanged at 5.50% today despite further downside inflation surprises. We see the MNB opting for a prolonged pause in rates as it seeks to... 20th October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug./Sep. 2026) The unexpected fall in the unemployment rate in August suggests the labour market may be starting to recover, but the big picture is that hiring remains weak. With businesses’ energy costs likely to... 20th October 2026 · 3 mins read
