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Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The implications of the Houthi attacks on Riyadh

The recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, threaten to set back the recovery in the Kingdom’s non-oil economy, even if the damage to the tourism sector proves to be limited. The key risk, though, is that these attacks raise the…

Jason Tuvey

Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist
Chief Economist's Note

China Shock 2.0: Key Messages

China Shock 2.0 is the result of policy choices made in Beijing that will not change soon. While some economies – notably in South East Asia – will benefit as production shifts out of China,…

Neil Shearing

Group Chief Economist
UK Economics Weekly

When should Burnham call a general election?

To the extent that the economy matters in determining the timing of general elections and their result, our economic forecasts and the government's tax and spending plans imply that 2028 looks like a…

Paul Dales

Chief UK Economist
US Economics Weekly

Inflation risks keep more Fed hikes in play

The latest data and Fedspeak suggest there is upside risk to our forecast that the Fed will hike interest rates twice more, by a total 50 bp, in the coming six months.

Ariane Curtis

Senior North America Economist

Events and podcasts

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SouthAfricaDropin JA
Online Event
15
Oct 2026
Today
13:00 BST

Africa Drop-In: A look ahead to South Africa’s latest fiscal event

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will deliver South Africa’s latest Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) against the backdrop of the energy shock, higher global bond yields, and upcoming local elections. Join our Africa and Markets teams, on Thursday 15th October, as they look ahead to the statement and discuss the latest developments surrounding South Africa’s economy, including:How…

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commercial drop-in
Online Event

Drop-In: Global commercial real estate outlook

3:00PM BST
Singapore skyline
In-Person Event

In-Person Event: China Shock 2.0 - Singapore

9:00AM BST

Guoco Midtown Network Hub Level 2

Tel aviv
Online Event

Drop-In: Israel's election - the end of the Netanyahu era?

2:00PM BST
Hong Kong skyline with skyscraper
In-Person Event

In-Person Event: China Shock 2.0 - Hong Kong

9:00AM BST

The Executive Centre, No, 28 Stanley St, Central, Hong Kong

uk roundtable 14th oct
Online Event

UK Drop-In: The Autumn Budget preview - what to expect, and what it means for markets

3:00PM BST
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Watch and listen anytime

Recordings of our online events and podcasts are available to watch and listen at any time.

Podcast

Bond Market Turbulence, France's Fiscal Reckoning and Europe's China Dilemma

Podcast

Energy shock, China shock and the global economy
Gbl China Shock 2.0
On demand

Drop-In: China Shock 2.0 and the return of global imbalances

3:00PM BST
globaldropin
On demand

Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – How long can the resilience last?

3:00PM BST

Podcast

Xi meets Trump: What next for China?
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On demand

Drop-In: The Gulf economies - are they over the worst?

10:00AM BST
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Latest analysis

The latest publications from our team, plus timely notes from our Chief Economist on the issues moving markets.

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Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Sep. 2026)

The clear deterioration in labour market conditions should give the RBA greater confidence that policy settings are adequately restrictive.

Abhijit Surya

Senior APAC Economist
Uganda’s external pressures force aggressive tightening

Africa Economics Update

Uganda’s external pressures force aggressive tightening

The Bank of Uganda’s (BoU) decision to raise its policy rate by 225bp to 12.00% at an unscheduled meeting today underscores the deterioration in the...

David Omojomolo

Africa Economist
Hot inflation raises risk of higher yields for longer

Capital Daily

Hot inflation raises risk of higher yields for longer

Hot US inflation data has put an October Fed hike back on the cards and sparked a dual sell-off in stocks and bonds. Our base case is for both to...

James Reilly

Senior Markets Economist
US commercial property

US Commercial Property Outlook

Retail and office face biggest downgrades to 2027 outlook

Despite the recent run-up in Treasury yields, we aren’t expecting a major impact on commercial real estate cap rates as we anticipate this will be...

Kiran Raichura

Chief Commercial Real Estate Economist

US Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026)

US Rapid Response

US Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026)

The upside surprise to core CPI in September was broad-based rather than due to any obvious temporary factors, therefore bringing an October rate hike...

Stephen Brown

Chief North America Economist
Paris office values to take the hardest hit from higher rates

Europe Commercial Property Update

Paris office values to take the hardest hit from higher rates

Paris office values are set to fall by almost 10% peak-to-trough – the largest decline in the euro-zone – as weakening prime rental growth combines...

Amy Wood

Senior Commercial Real Estate Economist
China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.)

China Rapid Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.)

Broad credit growth fell to a fresh record low last month, dragged down by continued weakness in bank lending. Household borrowing remained the main...

Nguyen Hoang Nam

China Economist
chartbook

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2026)

EM growth appears to have weakened in Q3 but we think it will accelerate this quarter. Inflation is set to rise further and, with policymakers turning...

William Jackson

Chief Emerging Markets Economist
Egyptian pound

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt’s debt burden to remain on a downwards path

Egypt’s public finances still look poor on the surface, but there are reasons to think that the public debt burden will decline over the coming years...

Nicolas Crittenden

Assistant Economist
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