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UK Budget Response: Fiscal credibility preserved, but difficult decisions deferred
UK Economics Focus

UK Budget Response: Fiscal credibility preserved, but difficult decisions deferred

The Budget revealed only a small slippage in the plans to reduce the budget deficit and stabilise the debt to GDP ratio. Further slippage next year or more tax hikes are likely. Even so, this Budget doesn’t make the UK’s fiscal position look any…

Paul Dales

Chief UK Economist
Asset Allocation Update

Where to hide in equities if the AI boom turns to bust

Energy and financials have fared well in tech selloffs over recent years, but we doubt they would continue to do so if the AI boom turned to bust. Traditional defensive sectors remain the best bet in…

James Reilly

Senior Markets Economist
Capital Daily

Tech’s growing vulnerability to rising yields

Tech companies’ spending boom has arguably made them more vulnerable to borrowing costs, and they won’t get much relief from the Fed if the recent meeting is anything to go by. Our base case remains…

Thomas Mathews

Head of Markets, Asia Pacific

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel’s election points to political limbo

The results so far from Israel’s election point to a range of possibilities for the next government although, irrespective of who is in power, it looks like the coalition will be fragile. We don’t…

William Jackson

Chief Emerging Markets Economist

Events and podcasts

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southafrica landscape
On demand
5
Nov 2026
Today
13:00 GMT

Africa Drop-In: South Africa's local election results and unpacking the outlook for Africa

Our Africa team hosted an online session, on Thursday 5th November, where they digested the preliminary results from South Africa's local elections and what they mean for the country's political and policy outlook. The team also answered client questions and discussed recent developments across the whole of Sub-Saharan Africa, which included:Checking the pulse ahead of Nigeria's presidential…

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Bank_of_England_ldn
On demand

UK Drop-in: The BoE's October meeting and quarterly report - how high will rates go and for how long?

3:00PM GMT
drop in 5 aug
Online Event

NA Drop-in: Is the AI bubble already deflating?

3:00PM GMT
UK Consumer Outlook - Consumers on street
Online Event

Drop-In: UK Consumer Insights – Time to bet against consumers?

3:00PM GMT
Emerging markets 12th nov
Online Event

Drop in: EM Financial Risk update – where are vulnerabilities rising

4:00PM GMT
CRE - UK Commercial city buildings
In-Person Event

In person Event: CRE Roundtable - UK and Europe Commercial Property Outlook 2027 - what to watch out for

9:00AM GMT

Capital Economics, 100 Victoria Street, London, SW1E 5JL

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Watch and listen anytime

Recordings of our online events and podcasts are available to watch and listen at any time.

midterms drop-in image
On demand

North America Drop-In: What do the midterms mean for Trump’s agenda?

3:00PM GMT
commodities drop-in
On demand

Drop-in: Commodities catch-up – The re-shaping of global energy markets

3:00PM GMT

Podcast

Two elections and a Budget
Brazil-election
On demand

Lat Am Drop-In: What Lula’s shock victory means for Brazil’s macro and markets

12:30PM GMT
france
On demand

Drop-in: France Under Pressure: Is Euro-Zone Crisis 2.0 Coming?

2:00PM GMT

Podcast

Fed, ECB and UK Budget: A Big Week for the Global Economy
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Latest analysis

The latest publications from our team, plus timely notes from our Chief Economist on the issues moving markets.

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Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2026)

The Mexican central bank’s board made clear that today’s 25bp cut to the policy rate (to 6.25%) is a one-off. But even so, it’s hard to square this...

William Jackson

Chief Emerging Markets Economist
AI boom runs into US politics buzzsaw

Capital Daily

AI boom runs into US politics buzzsaw

Growing fears about the sustainability of the AI buildout in the context of the major shift in US politics have led to another bruising day for tech...

Joe Maher

Markets Economist
SA local elections unlikely to rock GNU stability, for now

Africa Economics Update

SA local elections unlikely to rock GNU stability, for now

South Africa’s municipal election results show that the power of the African National Congress (ANC) has further diminished, giving the centre-right...

David Omojomolo

Africa Economist
View of tropical storm in Thailand

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

Gauging the macro impact of El Niño

The experience from the two most recent El Niños is that the current one is unlikely to cause a major shock to EM growth, but that it could add to...

William Jackson

Chief Emerging Markets Economist
CRE - UK Commercial city buildings

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Nov. 26)

Higher risk-free interest rates are putting upward pressure on property yields, although all-property yields have seen a relatively small 7bps rise in...

Matthew Pointon

Senior Commercial Real Estate Economist
Iran

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

US mid-terms and the Iran war, Saudi budget deficit

The US mid-terms and a flurry of diplomatic activity in the region have reduced the threat of a renewed escalation of the Iran war and also raised...

Jason Tuvey

Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist
Prime office rents will continue to exceed consensus expectations

Europe Commercial Property Update

Prime office rents will continue to exceed consensus expectations

Euro-zone prime office rents have risen sharply in real terms since 2019. However, after allowing for the decline in space per worker since the...

Amy Wood

Senior Commercial Real Estate Economist
BoE hikes more likely to be small and short rather than large and long

UK Economics Update

BoE hikes more likely to be small and short rather than large and long

The rise in interest rates from 3.75% to 4.00% announced by the Bank of England today is more likely to mark the start of small and short-lived rise...

Paul Dales

Chief UK Economist

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czechia Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2026)

The Czech National Bank’s 25bp hike today, to 4.00%, is likely to be followed by one more increase in the cycle next year. Market pricing has shifted...

Nicolas Crittenden

Assistant Economist
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