Emerging Markets Economics Update How will higher bond yields shape EM fiscal risks? EM public finances have become more vulnerable to higher interest rates in recent years. Some major EMs with underlying fiscal vulnerabilities – including Brazil, South Africa and Hungary – have... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big are the contagion risks from France? France appears to be heading for a fiscal crisis which could lead to contagion and potentially a recession in the euro-zone. However, several factors mean the contagion risks to other countries’ bond... 19th October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Why a UK commercial property value correction remains unlikely Despite the rise in long-term risk-free interest rates, UK commercial property capital values have remained broadly resilient. While leading indicators point to a modest decline of around 1% in 2026... 16th October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Global headwinds threaten UK’s economic resilience While the economy has shown remarkable resilience to higher energy prices and borrowing costs so far this year, we still think the coming rise in inflation will lead to an easing in GDP growth from 1... 16th October 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Activity data soft in Q3, fiscal policy looser in 2027 The latest official activity data present a downside risk to our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth in Q3. But even if growth is slower than we had anticipated in the third quarter, we wouldn't revise... 16th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone energy shock still much smaller than 2022 September’s euro-zone inflation data highlight that the energy shock is still much smaller than that in 2022, and the indirect effects of higher energy costs have so far been negligible. We suspect... 16th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia sanctions shift, Polish core inflation softens The US seems to be moving towards (additional) sanctions relief for Russia, but the macroeconomic consequences are likely to be limited without a rollback of European sanctions (which seems much less... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update French OATs will remain Euro-zone’s problem child We think the selloff in French OATs has further to run over the coming year and spreads could conceivably rise much further, perhaps to around 200bp, given that attempts to put France’s public... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Israel’s election: what it means for the macro outlook lsrael’s upcoming election is unlikely to have a major impact on the country’s near-term growth outlook or fiscal trajectory, but it will have significant medium-term implications. An opposition-led... 15th October 2026 · 18 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (August 2026) After making a slow start to Q3, we expect euro-zone industrial production to have picked up in September. But the medium-term outlook remains poor due to pressure from China and rising wholesale... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Aug. 2026) The 0.1% m/m rise in real GDP in August built on two consecutive 0.4% m/m gains in the previous two months and continued the remarkable resilience of the economy to higher energy prices and borrowing... 15th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris office values to take the hardest hit from higher rates Paris office values are set to fall by almost 10% peak-to-trough – the largest decline in the euro-zone – as weakening prime rental growth combines with sharper rises in yields than in other markets. 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The outlook continues to darken for the euro Euro-zone spreads and the euro have stabilised over the past couple of days and plenty of bad news on French politics now appears priced in. That said, it is hard to make an optimistic case for the... 13th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update When would the ECB intervene in bond markets? Bond markets are a long way from needing ECB intervention – in the recent past, policymakers have only got twitchy when 10-year sovereign spreads were around 250bp. If spreads approached those levels... 13th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Will the UK Budget prompt a bond market backlash? Our base case is that the Chancellor will not loosen fiscal policy by much at the Budget on 28th October, preventing a bond market backlash. But his margin for error is small, and a loss of investor... 13th October 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Recovery delayed by higher mortgage rates The upward revisions to our Bank Rate and gilt yield forecasts due to the ongoing energy price shock suggest higher mortgage rates will remain a drag on housing for longer. Our forecast is for house... 13th October 2026 · 10 mins read
