Europe Economic Outlook Investors expecting too many hikes from the ECB The euro-zone economy is likely to continue growing at around its trend rate of 1% over the next year or two. Among the largest countries, Germany, France and Italy will grow at a modest pace while... 24th September 2026 · 25 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB likely to sit this tightening cycle out The SNB’s decision to leave interest rates on hold today was in line with economists’ and investors’ expectations. But in contrast to the prevailing view in the market that the Bank will hike rates at... 24th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (September) 24th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Surge in OAT-Bund spread has further to run The spread between the 10-year French and German government bond yields has reached its widest level in over a decade, and we think it will widen further next year as investors’ concerns about France... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Sep. 2026) September’s flash PMIs suggest the resilience in activity may have faded a touch in Q3, but intensifying inflationary pressures will add to the Bank of England’s unease about the upside risks to... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (September 2026) Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well so far and we expect regional GDP growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on growth in Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the... 23rd September 2026 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September 2026) September’s big improvement in the euro-zone’s composite PMI supports our view that despite the weakness in the official activity data in July, GDP will increase in Q3. The output price PMIs rose too... 23rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Sep. 26) A negative yield impact outweighed rental growth in August, meaning all-property capital values recorded a year-on-year decline for the first time since late 2024. But we still think the 10-year gilt... 22nd September 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: new inflation target points to long rate pause Hungary’s central bank opted to leave its base rate on hold at 5.50% today, and the decision to lower the inflation target to 2.5% from 2028 argues for a more cautious approach to renewed rate cuts... 22nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (September 2026) September’s decline in consumer confidence shows that households’ moods have soured as energy prices have risen. But as long as oil and natural gas prices don’t rise a lot further, we think household... 22nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) opted to leave its base rate on hold at 5.50% today and the easing cycle will probably be on pause through the rest of this year as the central bank introduces a new... 22nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Countering China Shock 2.0 will carry a climate cost China’s ability to produce and export green technologies at a low cost is a key driver of renewable and electric vehicle rollouts, including in the EU. As a result, efforts to now de-risk from China... 22nd September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Productivity gains not yet accompanied by weaker office demand Despite productivity gains that could reduce the need for office space, markets with a high share of information and communication jobs have generally seen stronger office take-up over the past year... 22nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Aug. 2026) The penultimate public finances release before the Budget on 28th October paints a dismal picture, with the government once again borrowing more than expected. This supports our view that a small or... 22nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s markets wobble, Russians head to the polls The stress experienced by some Turkish investment funds this week appears to have been contained, but it has exposed Turkey’s sensitivity to a reversal in foreign capital flows. An interest rate cut... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Higher mortgage rates to squeeze households for longer The revisions to our forecasts this week mean the drag on activity from higher mortgage rates will be a bit bigger and last longer than we previously thought. This adds to our view that the coming... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
