Europe Economics Weekly A tale of two shocks Events this week highlighted two of the biggest challenges facing Europe's economy: the energy shock and the China shock. We expect euro-zone GDP to keep rising over the coming quarters despite higher... 18th September 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Aug. 2026) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in August shows that the economy is still proving resilient to higher energy prices and borrowing costs. But we doubt this will last much longer. 18th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Energy-driven inflation won’t force the SNB’s hand We think that the SNB will leave its policy rate unchanged at next week’s meeting. While higher energy prices have pushed inflation higher, underlying price pressures are weak and inflation is set to... 17th September 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE ready to raise rates, but not as far as investors fear We have revised up our Bank of England forecasts and now expect interest rates to be raised from 3.75% to 4.00% at the next policy meeting in November and to 4.25% in February. Our previous forecast... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Interest Rate Announcement (September 2026) The decision by the Czech National Bank to leave the policy rate at 3.75% is likely to be followed by a resumption of the tightening cycle in November (with a 25bp move) and we think one further hike... 17th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (17th Sep. 2026) For more detailed and up to date analysis, see here. The Bank of England left interest rates at 3.75% today and announced that it will reduce its holding of gilts by £368bn over the next eight years... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation to hit 4% by December We forecast headline inflation in the euro-zone to jump from 3.2% in August to 3.8% in September. And we think that increases in energy, food and core inflation will push it up to 4% by December. But... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Why there may still be hope for Gilts We expect Gilt yields to fall over the next year as the Bank of England doesn’t deliver on the amount of tightening that is priced into money markets. But given the potential for oil prices to rise... 16th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key questions on Russia’s Duma election Russians head to the polls from Friday in the country’s first parliamentary election since the invasion of Ukraine. While the outcome is not in doubt, the result will offer clues about public... 16th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus China Shock hitting euro-zone harder than most regions China Shock 2.0 will be a structural drag on euro-zone growth for the rest of this decade. Consumers will benefit from cheaper and increasingly sophisticated Chinese imports but manufacturers are... 16th September 2026 · 12 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (July 2026) After euro-zone industrial production edged down in July, we expect the sector to continue to struggle as the increase in EU natural gas prices gradually feeds through to industrial gas and... 16th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2026) We doubt that the combination of the rise in CPI inflation, from 2.9% in July to 3.1% in August and the leaps in energy prices in recent weeks are enough to prompt the Bank of England to hike interest... 16th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Diverging interest rate cycles Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well so far and we expect regional GDP growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the consensus on... 15th September 2026 · 21 mins read
Europe Economics Update AI having a small impact on EZ productivity growth Growth in output and productivity in the euro-zone’s information and communication sector is very strong by historical standards, no doubt reflecting the impact of AI. However, so far there is no... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Equities Update Making the relative case for European equities We think the underperformance of the European stock market relative to that of the US in recent years will reverse over the medium term as the AI-fuelled equity boom soon turns to bust. 15th September 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jul./Aug. 2026) The further weakening in labour activity in August lends some more support to our view that second-round inflation effects from higher energy prices will be muted. We still think there is a reasonable... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
