Europe Economics Update EZ labour market is cooling The euro-zone’s unemployment rate is close to a record low, but it has risen slightly and the latest surveys point to the labour market getting looser. This is a key reason why we think the risk of... 2nd November 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The bond market’s troubles may be drawing to a close We continue to think that less-hawkish-than-expected monetary policy and the bursting AI bubble will give bonds a further boost over time. 2nd November 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Indirect effects of energy prices still modest National inflation data published today suggest that the euro-zone inflation rate will have risen to 4.0% in October and there is growing evidence that higher energy prices are pushing up inflation... 30th October 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes and the two-speed economy The impending interest rate hikes from the Bank of England may exacerbate the two-speed economy by weighing on consumer spending by more than business investment. So over the next year or so, the... 30th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Political deadlock in Israel, CEE tightening in focus Israel’s election this week delivered no clear winner. While political uncertainty won’t have much bearing on the country’s security strategy or near-term economic outlook, it makes it less likely... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 2026) The continued growth of the euro-zone economy in Q3 shows that households and businesses have not pared back their spending due to the Iran war. We think the economy will continue to grow steadily in... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech & Hungary GDP (Q3) & Poland CPI (Oct.) The preliminary Q3 GDP figures out of Czechia and Hungary were on the disappointing side, although we expect growth in both economies to accelerate in the coming quarters. The Czech figure still... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2026) The stagnation in the Nationwide measure of house prices in October (Capital Economics forecast +0.1%, consensus -0.1%) is probably a brief hiatus in the recent decline in prices rather than a sign of... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2026) Our proprietary financial risk indicators show that most countries remain well placed to withstand recent shocks, including rising energy prices and higher global bond yields. Our aggregate EM... 29th October 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) Despite a modest boost to housing demand from the Your First Home scheme, high mortgage rates will limit house price gains to just 1.5% in the year to Q4 2027. By making it difficult for renters to... 29th October 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB likely to hike just once more While the ECB’s decision to leave rates unchanged was expected, the policy statement and President Lagarde’s remarks suggest to us that the Bank is becoming more confident that underlying inflation is... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey signals only a modest fall in UK commercial property values The Q3 RICS survey suggests UK commercial property values remain under pressure from high interest rates, but it does not point to a sharp downturn. While occupier and investment sentiment weakened... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch Will insurance hikes spiral into higher rates for longer? The Bank of England will almost certainly raise interest rates from 3.75% to 4.00% at its meeting on Thursday 5th November and may lay the ground for a rise to 4.25% shortly after. We don’t think this... 29th October 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Budget offers little respite for housing and landlords While the Budget on 28 th October was small for housing, the surprise was the further tax hike on private landlords’ rental income from April 2027. By either directly raising rents as landlords pass... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment recovery delayed, not derailed Elevated interest rates and tightening credit standards will weigh on investment activity over the rest of this year and into early 2027. However, we expect euro-zone investment to rise by 10%-15% y/y... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
