UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (September 2026) Net lending to property reached £3.20bn in September, the highest monthly outturn since March 2020, when the pandemic led to a temporary halt on loan repayments for some asset owners. 29th October 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (October 2026) The small fall in the Economic Sentiment Indicator in October leaves it consistent with solid GDP growth in Q4 and suggests that the economy may be holding up a little better than implied by the PMIs... 29th October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Sep. 2026) September’s money and lending figures suggest households are still cushioning the blow from higher energy prices by borrowing more and saving less, and that high mortgage rates continue to restrain... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Budget Response: Fiscal credibility preserved, but difficult decisions deferred The Budget revealed only a small slippage in the plans to reduce the budget deficit and stabilise the debt to GDP ratio. Further slippage next year or more tax hikes are likely. Even so, this Budget... 28th October 2026 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily “No harm” budget keeps Gilts out of the firing line Today’s UK budget announcement has proven the non-event that newly-minted Chancellor Healey had signalled in advance. While his first budget is hardly inspiring, it contrasts favourably with the... 28th October 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Budget (28th Oct. 2026) The Budget revealed only a small slippage in the plans to reduce the deficit and stabilise the debt ratio. Further slippage next year or more tax hikes are likely. Even so, this Budget doesn’t make... 28th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s election points to political limbo The results so far from Israel’s election point to a range of possibilities for the next government although, irrespective of who is in power, it looks like the coalition will be fragile. We don’t... 28th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weak credit demand adds to downside growth risks The ECB’s Q3 Bank Lending Survey showed credit standards tightening and demand weakening across most loan categories. This supports our view that GDP growth slowed to a crawl in Q3, while banks’... 27th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update France's fiscal warning to the rest of the world The sell-off in French bonds is a warning for governments elsewhere, but we doubt it is the start of a broad fiscal crisis. Few advanced economies have comparably poor fiscal arithmetic, and those... 27th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why is France being singled out by bond markets? Rising interest rates and weak growth have made debt dynamics more challenging everywhere. What makes France stand out are the size of the fiscal adjustment needed to stabilise the debt ratio and the... 26th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Tech earnings vs central bank caution A hectic week for politics, central banks and corporate earnings reports may well be dominated by continued jitters around the sustainability of the AI equity boom. Over the past couple of weeks, they... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Could France’s fiscal troubles be good news for Gilts? We expect the spillovers to the Gilt market from a further worsening in France’s fiscal problems to be limited. If anything, the balance of risks points to further French fiscal stress putting... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (October) The small increase in Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in October supports our view that, after stalling in Q3, the economy will return to growth in Q4. That said, the discrepancy between... 26th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No quick fix in sight for France; ECB to hold rates This week’s PMI data suggest that France’s political and fiscal crises are taking an increasing toll on the economic outlook. And with little prospect of meaningful fiscal consolidation before next... 23rd October 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly French bond rout raises the stakes for the UK Budget Recent developments in the French bond market strengthen the case for a prudent UK Budget on Wednesday. But the government still has room to act. We expect some temporary cost-of-living support and... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s budget, spillover risks from France Hungary’s 2027 budget delivered a positive surprise for investors, although we harbour doubts about whether the government can meet the fiscal criteria for euro adoption by 2030. Elsewhere, the spike... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
