UK Economics Update Shale gas will transform the UK energy market (eventually) It may still be many years before the UK’s huge reserves of shale gas can be profitably exploited on a large scale, but the impact could then be significant. Even in the near term, the boom in the... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Apr.) & Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.) April’s fairly hawkish MPC minutes left it looking more likely that the Committee will pause its quantitative easing (QE) programme once the purchases currently underway are completed next month. But... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile, Peru signal near-term rate change unlikely Both Chile and Peru kept interest rates unchanged in April and signalled that moves in either direction are unlikely in the near-term. Further ahead, if we are right in expecting the global economic... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris property yields looking vulnerable to an economic downturn In our view, the plunge in French commercial property investment volumes in the first quarter of 2012 highlights some fundamental weaknesses in the market. And if we are right that the French economy... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The green shoots of recovery Signs of a recovery in the Japanese economy are becoming more evident as early indicators for March show activity has picked up after a slow start to the year. Confidence is increasing and the eco-car... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India and Vietnam: Asia’s disappointing duo Growth has weakened significantly in both Vietnam and India over the past 12 months. In the next couple of years, neither economy looks like recapturing the impressive growth rates that were recorded... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Limited contagion risk from events in Argentina – Spain aside 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Debt concerns still dominating the Riksbank’s thoughts The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.0% was no surprise given the recent run of encouraging economic data. But while the chances of an imminent cut have perhaps... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 inching towards more resources for IMF At their meeting later this week, G20 finance ministers are likely to focus on the risks to recovery posed by high oil prices and the euro-zone. Of these, the euro-zone crisis remains the most... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada signals possible rate increases The Bank of Canada's policy statement, which pledged to keep interest rates at 1.0% for now, signalled that some small increases might soon be needed. This hawkish change from last month’s fairly... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The soft industrial production and housing starts figures for March add to the evidence that economic growth may have eased towards the end of the first quarter. 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) The UK has now experienced about four years of below-average productivity growth. We remain sceptical that this means that productivity growth has been permanently damaged. So we still think that a... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Can stronger industrial occupier market conditions last? Occupier demand for industrial property increased in Q1 and, given its low starting point, further gains in the near term can’t be ruled out. But the medium-term prospects for the manufacturing and... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (April) Today’s improvement in the ZEW economic sentiment survey is consistent with resilience being shown by the German economy. But it is unclear that this optimism can be maintained given the nature of the... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone crisis still the big risk for region’s banks Our latest Banking Heat Map paints a mixed picture: in some countries (notably Hungary and the Baltic States) credit continues to shrink, in others (Turkey) a boom in lending over the past year or so... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India cuts repo rate, prioritising growth The Reserve Bank of India cut its key policy rate by 50bp today in response to slower growth and a fall in underlying inflation. We suspect it will deliver a further 50bp of rate cuts by year-end as... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
