Europe Economics Weekly German consumer boom is a myth The recent resilience of the German economy has prompted us to become a little more upbeat regarding its prospects. But notwithstanding the continuing falls in unemployment, we suggest that talk of a... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Resilience of consumption growth may not last The likely acceleration in consumption growth in the first quarter is encouraging, especially at a time when the recovery in the industrial sector appears to be running out of steam. But while we do... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC wrong to dismiss weak output figures This week’s preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP will finally answer the question of whether the UK has slipped back into technical recession. It will be a close-run thing as to whether or not the data show... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A return to growth in 2012 In this Weekly we present our updated GDP forecasts. The Japanese economy looks set to return to growth in Q1 after contracting in four of the last five quarters. We expect the economy will continue... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What's next for soybean prices? The price of the benchmark yellow no. 1 soybean has risen by about 20% since the beginning of 2012, to 1400 US cents per bushel, from 1180. Factors that contributed to this rise are drought related... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) March's sharp drop in headline consumer price inflation, to 1.9% from 2.6%, and the decline in the official 'core' inflation figure, to 1.9% from 2.3%, supports our view that the Bank of Canada is... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: PRI consolidates its lead The latest opinion polls suggest that not only does the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto have a healthy lead in the race to July’s presidential election, but that his party may also take control of Congress... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumer spending remains resilient All measures of spending improved in March, albeit partly due to temporary factors. 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Pick-up in loan demand suggests policy already loose enough According to the Bank of Japan’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS), loan demand from firms and households jumped in Q1. The pick-up in household demand is particularly encouraging. The survey... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s interest rate floor revisited The decision earlier this week by Brazil’s central bank (BCB) to cut interest rates once again – and signal further easing ahead – has revived talk about a “floor” on interest rates in Latin America’s... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) Today’s German Ifo survey came in ahead of market expectations, although it posted only a small improvement compared with March. Predictions that the German economy will be strong enough to pull the... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s surge in retail sales suggested that consumer spending remains surprisingly resilient and has increased the chances that the overall economy grew in the first quarter. However, we remain... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update European shale gas adds to risks to Russia’s growth model European shale gas reserves will take many years to develop, but in time the impact on Russia’s energy exports could be substantial. We estimate that Russia’s revenues from gas exports to Europe may... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Japan’s stock market at risk of renewed strength in the yen 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How is growth shaping up in Latin America? It was beginning to feel like somebody had turned the clock back twelve months. With the first quarter of 2012 bringing a renewed sense of calm to global markets and a rebound in activity across the... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
