Global Markets Update Bunds increasingly vulnerable to erosion of safe haven status German government bonds are still regarded as a safe haven, allowing them to benefit from concerns about the global economy and the rolling crisis in the periphery of the euro-zone. Some of the... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Confidence knocked by renewed euro-zone fears A reassessment of the likelihood of a default by a peripheral euro-zone sovereign, as well as some less encouraging news on the pace of the global economic recovery, has hit UK equities and prompted... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Markets Monitor (Apr.) Consistent with trends in other emerging markets, most of the Middle East’s stock markets have dropped back from the highs reached earlier this year. While Egypt’s fall is perhaps the most striking... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) Despite February's 2.9% m/m decline in export volumes, the past growth in monthly exports still indicate that first-quarter net exports managed to contribute positively to GDP growth. We estimate the... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) & PPI (Mar.) In response to the unexpected narrowing in the trade deficit in February, we have raised our estimate for first-quarter GDP growth to 2.5% annualised, from 2.0%. Meanwhile, we doubt that that the... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policy easing starting to have an impact Much stronger-than-expected lending in March adds to the likelihood that tomorrow’s Q4 GDP figures will be reassuringly strong and signals that policy easing is starting to have an effect. Meanwhile... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update IEA’s oil market outlook still too bullish The IEA’s latest assessment that the “tide of remorseless tightening in the oil market” appears to have turned is surely right. Indeed, this has already been reflected in the levelling out of crude... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Balanced growth suggests Mexico will continue to outperform While Brazilian GDP growth has outstripped that of Mexico in recent years, it has been very unbalanced. That has left Mexico better placed to weather any external shocks. As a result, we expect Mexico... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s euro-zone industrial production figures were boosted by temporary factors and do not alter the bleak outlook for the overall economy. 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Feb.) The latest disappointing trade figures suggested that net trade’s positive contribution to GDP growth in the final quarter of last year is likely to have been a one-off. 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Optimism on China’s current account is premature Given China’s failure to rein in investment-led growth, its current account surplus is likely to rebound both in dollar terms a year or two from now and relative to its own GDP too. Relative to world... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia set to keep rates at record low Having cut rates by a cumulative 100bp since October, Bank Indonesia (BI) left its main policy rate on hold at a record low level for the second consecutive month today, as widely expected. Although... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia probably grew by 4.5% y/y in Q1 The early indications are that Russia’s economy grew by around 4.5% y/y in the first quarter of this year, making it one of the region’s best performers. Unfortunately, sustaining this pace of growth... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada unlikely to raise rates anytime soon We think the Bank of Canada is unlikely to raise interest rates from the current 1% anytime soon. Not only does the marginal improvement in current economic conditions partially reflect temporary... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Borrowers making larger loan applications The $20,000 increase in the average loan size that mortgage applicants are seeking from lenders over the past three months may be an early sign that buyer confidence is improving. This should provide... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
