Asia Economic Outlook Asia well placed to withstand weaker global growth Asia is well placed to withstand the impact of any major shocks to the global economy. The health of economic fundamentals and policymakers’ room for stimulus should enable the region to grow by just... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Europe’s deleveraging to increase pressure on Gulf businesses Ample liquidity coupled with a decreasing reliance on foreign funding mean that most banks in the Gulf are well-placed to weather any storm in the euro-zone’s financial system. But deleveraging in... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) March’s decline in existing home sales probably reflects the normal month by month volatility rather than renewed underlying weakness. The increase in households’ confidence in the outlook for the... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Relocations are another downside risk to West End office rents Media reports suggest that high West End office rents have begun to push some tenants out of the area. To be fair, evidence that high relative rents cause widespread relocations across the capital’s... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia’s credit boom is unsustainable The Colombian credit boom appears to be unsustainable. Lending growth has been excessive, while new loans have been increasingly funded via wholesale foreign funding. We expect tighter macroeconomic... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French election won’t tackle key issues With Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande set to emerge as frontrunners after the first round of the French presidential elections this Sunday, attention will turn more closely to what their policies... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets right to shrug off Czech political worries The financial markets have shrugged off signs that the Czech Republic may be heading towards fresh elections that could ultimately derail fiscal consolidation plans. This makes sense. For a start, the... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Net trade supports return to GDP growth in Q1 Strong annual export growth in March was flattered by the disruption caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake last year and is still heavily dependent on the recovery in the US. Nonetheless, net... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Apr.) The latest regional figures suggest that the pace of economic recovery has increasingly diverged between the regions, with growth strengthening in most areas of the Midlands and the South, but... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in the Philippines due to inflation risks The Philippines central bank (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold today at 4.0%, as expected. However, with inflationary pressures likely to remain moderate and global growth set to disappoint this... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Transactions to suffer as vendors dig in their heels On balance, April’s rise in asking prices does not appear to be good news for the housing market. For a start, to our minds it further reduces the chances that activity will recover any time soon. It... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian rates? The decision by the Central Bank of Brazil last night to cut interest rates by 75bps to 9% was widely expected. Instead, the critical issue for investors is whether this marks the end of the current... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian government still too sanguine on IMF deal Earlier today we attended a meeting with Hungarian Minister of Economy, Zoltan Csefalvay. We left with the impression that, while the government talks a good game on the need for medium-term economic... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to signal a move in either direction We doubt that the FOMC's upcoming two-day meeting, which concludes on Wednesday 25th April, will throw up any major changes. The minutes from the last meeting revealed little appetite among Fed... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Downside risks to Saudi equities are high By most measures, Saudi stocks appear to be undervalued by up to 30%. Recent earnings data have also beaten analysts’ estimates and expectations for profit growth are strong leading many to suggest... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
