Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Mar.) March’s consumer confidence survey, released today, shows sentiment continuing to recover, although it remains below last year’s pre-disaster level. Consumer inflation expectations are also rising... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Turn in the US profit cycle looms US corporate profits have grown significantly in the nearly three years since the end of the last recession. Admittedly, there are structural reasons why the share of profits in corporate output may... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The recent downward trend in inflation came to a halt in March, but this should be only temporary. We still expect inflation to fall below its target later this year. 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily China takes another step towards financial market liberalisation 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Weather won't keep US natural gas prices down for long The bulk of the decline in the price of US natural gas, from $6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) early in 2010 to around $3 at the start of 2012, can be explained by the surge in supply. But... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) & Empire State Index (Apr.) Households appear to be contributing more to the economic recovery just at a time when the industrial recovery seems to be running out of stream. Some of the strength in consumption in the first... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Downside risks to Dublin office rental value outlook increase The fact that the Irish economy slipped back into recession in the latter half of last year lends support to our view that, taking 2012 and 2013 together, Dublin office rental values will fall by a... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will productivity growth ever recover? The UK has now experienced about four years of below-average productivity growth. We remain sceptical that this means that productivity growth has been permanently damaged. So we still think that a... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: political chaos raises risk of major economic crisis Various events over the past couple of days have thrown Egypt’s fragile political transition into disarray. These developments raise fresh doubts over the country’s ability to secure external... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of the widened renminbi band? The immediate impact of a wider renminbi trading band on the exchange rate will be small, we suspect, but the reform is an important signal of renewed momentum behind economic policy liberalisation. 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s fiscal woes an obstacle to EU-IMF deal Fresh concerns about the Hungarian government’s willingness to accept the conditions for help from the EU and IMF have led to renewed tensions in its financial markets. Attention has focused on... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The annual growth rates of the broad monetary aggregates slowed only marginally in March, with the growth rate of our measure of M3 easing from 6.1% to a still very healthy 5.8% last month. 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit growth still uncomfortably strong The recent slowdown in Brazilian bank lending highlights the unsustainable nature of rapid credit growth in parts of Latin America. Credit risks are greatest in Argentina and Venezuela, while the... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis unsolved as growth outlook darkens Hopes that the crisis in the euro-zone had been solved by Greece’s debt restructuring and the ECB’s recent liquidity injections have faded. Despite some signs of resilience in Germany, the economic... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Challenges for South Korea While the world’s eyes were fixed on the North Korean rocket launch, last week’s election in the South brought into focus some of the challenges its policymakers face, in addition to dealing with... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's exporters are not lagging behind Canada's export and overseas investment performances over the last two decades or so indicate in our view that Canadian businesses/exporters have actually done fairly well. This broader take on 'trade... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
