UK Economics Update Are the official GDP figures too gloomy? The substantial divergence between the preliminary estimate of GDP and the closely-watched CIPS activity surveys has led many to question whether the official figures will be revised stronger in time... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: hopes fading for a quick deal with the IMF The decision by the Egyptian parliament to reject the government’s economic plan highlights a growing rift between the Muslim Brotherhood and the military-appointed administration. Worryingly, this... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bank of Japan running out of room to surprise On Friday the Bank of Japan is widely expected to announce another large increase in purchases of JGBs under its Asset Purchase Program (APP). Indeed, some commentators appear to believe that Japan’s... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Renewed recession underscores likelihood of housing downturn Every recession in the UK of the past half century has been accompanied by real house price falls. But unlike many episodes in the past, with inflation low by historical standards, there is a good... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Mar.) The unexpectedly big 4.2% m/m slump in durable goods orders in March isn't quite as bad as it looks, particularly as the details of the report suggest that there is now some upside risk to our... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary edges closer to an IMF/EU deal Signs that the European Commission (EC) is willing to be more lenient in its discussions with Hungary over a new IMF/EU financing programme suggest that an agreement could be reached more quickly than... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could a country ever lose money by lending to the IMF? While there may be no such thing as a risk-free loan, lending to the IMF is probably as close as it gets. Despite the IMF’s increasing exposure to the euro-zone, its preferred creditor status and... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Recession to extend the falls in capital values Despite the stability of rents in March, IPD all-property capital values fell by a further 0.3%m/m. That was the fifth consecutive decline. Admittedly, the cumulative falls in capital values since... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Provisional GDP (Q1) Just two and a half years after it pulled out of the last one, the UK is already back in a recession. We still think that GDP will contract by 0.5% this year as a whole. 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will borrowing respond to the recovery as the OBR hopes? We doubt that economic growth will be as strong as the OBR expects. But even if it is right, it may be too optimistic about the positive impact this will have on the public finances. 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack G7 to the rescue? The recent announcement by the G7’s Deauville Partnership that it will soon deliver on its earlier promise of a $20 billion ‘Arab Spring’ package to Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and Jordan, could... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The trivial fall in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 69.2 in April, from 69.5 March, was broadly in line with the already reported modest decline in the University of Michigan... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook US recovery, European recession We expect world GDP to grow by around 3% both this year and next. The US economy is set to recover steadily but the euro-zone recession will deepen, causing the sovereign debt crisis to flare up again... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Q1 weak, but better in March The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy was weaker than official GDP figures show in Q1, but there are signs in March’s data that the economy is close to bottoming... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine FDI: is there life after YPF? History suggests that the nationalisation of YPF may do little to deter FDI in Argentina’s energy sector. Nevertheless, we suspect that it will have a more significant impact on investment flows into... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
