Japan Economics Weekly Making sense of the monetary aggregates As if the Bank of Japan were not facing enough political pressure to ease policy further, some commentators have cited the recent contraction in the monetary base as additional evidence that a lot... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling’s rise clouds export outlook With last week’s dribble of economic figures hardly setting the pulse racing, it was the pound’s appreciation to its highest level since August 2010 that made the headlines. 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The hidden fiscal boost The rebound in tax receipts means that, for the first time in three years, State and local governments might soon be in a position to boost their spending. Over the next couple of years, this may... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB has limited ammunition Markets last week seized on hints from the ECB that it may restart its bond purchase programme in an attempt to contain Spanish bond yields. But there are clear doubts over whether the ECB has the... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lumber prices don’t undermine case for construction recovery The lack of a significant rise in lumber prices does not suggest that the nascent improvement in housing starts will soon fizzle out. The volume of lumber being transported by railroad has a much... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Despite the 0.3% m/m increase in consumer prices in March, favourable base effects still pushed the annual rate of CPI inflation down to a 12-month low of 2.7%, from 2.9%. The rate should fall to... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Core inflation weakens in Eastern Europe Headline inflation remains above-target in most of Emerging Europe. But inflation fell in several countries last month while core price pressures are subdued everywhere apart from Turkey. 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil returns to (unbalanced) growth Having stagnated over the second half of 2011, the early signs are that Brazil’s economy grew by around 1% q/q in the first quarter of this year. But while Brazil’s return to growth is clearly good... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risks to China’s commodity demand still skewed downwards North Korea’s rocket program appears to be at greater risk of an imminent “hard landing” than China’s economy. But beyond that, today’s Q1 GDP data tell us little about the prospects for China’s... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Government commits to further loosening China’s growth continued to slow in Q1. But there were some clues in the latest data that the economy is bottoming out and, with the State Council giving a strong signal today that credit policy will... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Mar.) & Construction (Feb.) March’s producer prices figures confirmed that rising energy prices have pushed up manufacturers’ costs. Nonetheless, the figures still suggested that consumer price inflation is on course to fall to... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian stocks set to underperform The recent fall in Russia’s stock market from the highs seen in the middle of last year is all the more surprising given the strength of oil prices. With economic growth set to slow, hopes for much... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore’s central bank likely to reverse course in October The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) unexpectedly tightened its policy stance today. The move was partly in response to Q1 GDP figures, also released today, which showed that the economy returned... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update No improvement in euro-zone industrial rental value outlook February’s unexpected rise in euro-zone industrial production might raise hopes that the strength of industrial occupier demand in the single currency region has improved. But we are not convinced... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
