US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales (Feb/Mar) The small rise in the Case-Shiller index in February supports our view that house prices are either very close to, or already through, their trough. But with new home sales still very subdued in March... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austerity backlash brings new dangers The backlash against austerity in the euro-zone could improve the region’s growth outlook. But it brings new dangers too, not least by putting dissenting countries on a collision course with Germany. 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The 0.2% m/m decline in February's retail sales values was disappointing but, given the news yesterday that wholesale sales increased by a much bigger than expected 1.6% m/m in that month, it still... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Extending APP horizon could allow ¥20tr of JGB purchases Expectations that the Bank of Japan will announce a further increase in asset purchases alongside the publication of updated economic forecasts on Friday are now so high that the Policy Board will... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Mar.) March’s public finance figures suggested that the trend in the fiscal position has worsened and have given some reason to doubt that the coalition will be able to bring borrowing down in line with the... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is the low office to retail yield spread sustainable? The current situation, where IPD all-office yields are lower than all-retail yields, is almost unprecedented and, in our view, not sustainable. Consistent with this, our forecasts already envisage... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Labour market stalls The modest 120,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in March, half the pace of job creation in February, prompted fears that the recovery could be faltering again. The rise in weekly initial... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Singapore overheating? Singapore’s economy is showing early signs of overheating. A global downturn would have a cooling effect, but tighter macroprudential controls could be needed. 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What more can the Bank of Japan do? Many commentators appear to believe that Japan’s economy could recover from deflation and grow more strongly if only the Bank of Japan were willing to step up its asset purchases. Some also argue that... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The pace of decline within both euro-zone manufacturing and services quickened during the month. The composite euro-zone flash PMI supports our view that the region will experience recessionary... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and euro-zone PMIs paint worrying picture The first estimates of the Chinese and euro-zone manufacturing PMIs for April remained below 50 and are consistent with further sharp falls in the prices of industrial metals. Most worryingly, the... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) China’s flash manufacturing PMI for April rose, but the small increase will have disappointed anyone hoping for a clear signal that the economy is bottoming out. 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are real estate equities understating the risks for 2012? An analysis of real estate equity prices suggests that our strongly negative capital value growth projections for 2012 may be pessimistic. However, since equity markets have not yet fully priced in... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada hoping for the best The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report paints a fairly upbeat picture for GDP growth this year and next. We think that this is unlikely to materialise, however, mainly because of the... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India trade boost for Pakistan? Ties between India and Pakistan have warmed in recent months, raising hopes of a normalisation of trade relations. While this would have the potential to boost bilateral trade, we have doubts over how... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
