Asia Economics Update Taiwan creeps out of recession Taiwan’s economy returned to growth in Q1, after two consecutive quarters of falling output at the end of last year. Nevertheless, growth remained lacklustre and given the economy’s export dependence... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest monetary data revealed a further pick-up in broad money supply growth following generous ECB lending. But while banks seem to be using some of the money to buy government bonds, they are... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & Spanish GDP (Q1) April’s euro-zone CPI inflation data confirmed that inflation remains stubbornly high. Over the coming months, we expect inflation to fall, but only gradually, ensuring that the squeeze on households’... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Growth to disappoint as the euro-zone crisis drags on The euro-zone economy is heading back into recession. And if we are right that the euro-zone is not sustainable in its current form, the downturn will extend into 2013 and eventually encompass all... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Chinese tourism bonanza for Asia The past 15 years has seen a surge in the number of mainland Chinese travelling overseas. Although Chinese tourists are becoming increasingly adventurous and travelling further afield, the vast... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed no nearer QE3...or higher rates The upward revisions to the Fed’s forecasts for core inflation published after last week’s policy meeting have largely been overlooked. But they actually play a crucial role in explaining why the... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market cooling The Bank of Canada's recent heavy hint that interest rates may need to rise soon already looks badly timed. Little more than a week after the release of its latest Monetary Policy Report, which... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth talk is cheap Last week saw what appeared to be an encouraging outbreak of unity amongst euro-zone policymakers on the need to supplement fiscal austerity with bigger efforts to boost economic growth. But talk is... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan mustn’t miss chance for trade liberalisation Aggressive monetary easing alone will not be enough to boost prices and activity in the real economy: structural changes to the supply side of the economy are also necessary. Reducing regulation... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Worst recovery for 100 years Although there are doubts over the reliability of the Q1 GDP figure, it would take a huge revision to change the woeful nature of this recovery. And regardless of whether the ONS figures are right or... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Negative outlook for Swiss office rents The results of the KOF survey released this morning did little to change our view that office rents will decline this year. Subdued economic growth is likely to trigger fresh weakness in the labour... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) First-quarter GDP growth came in at a disappointing 2.2% annualised, but the undershoot compared with the 2.5% consensus forecast was largely explained by an unexpected second consecutive quarterly... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s government falls victim to austerity backlash The fall of Romania’s cabinet earlier today adds to the growing list of European governments to be toppled by a backlash against austerity, reinforcing our below-consensus forecast for growth this... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s economic ‘model’ living on borrowed time Last week’s news that Argentina is to nationalise YPF has helped to deflect attention from further signs that the economy is slowing sharply. A growing dependence on temporary fixes to prop up an... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery appears to be faltering Today’s data releases were inevitably overshadowed by the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board meeting, but they were disappointing too. Indeed, they suggest that Japan’s economic recovery may... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
