Asia Economics Update More policy loosening to come in Australia The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its cash rate by a larger-than-expected 50bp to 3.75% today. We continue to expect conditions outside of the resources sector to be sluggish, as the currency... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Mar.) March’s drop was not enough to prevent average house prices in England and Wales from recording a modest rise during the first quarter. But with the economy seemingly now back in recession and... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fears of global food price inflation unjustified Fears that the recent jump in some agricultural prices will lead to an upturn in world inflation are wide of the mark. Overall, agricultural prices have barely changed this year and are still much... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Old concerns re-emerge as Peru’s recovery gains pace An improvement in the global backdrop helped Peru’s economy to gather pace in Q1. This has led to the re-emergence of some familiar concerns over the strength of domestic demand and credit growth... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Today’s continued pick-up in China’s official PMI adds to the evidence that conditions in manufacturing have stopped deteriorating. But this survey is skewed towards larger firms and so probably... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Apr.) The deterioration in April’s CIPS report on manufacturing suggested that the industrial sector has started the second quarter on a weak footing. The rebalancing of the economy towards production and... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Hollande really transform France’s outlook? François Hollande’s promises of a pro-growth strategy and a stronger leadership role in Europe have raised hopes about France’s economic outlook. But his bold words have so far been backed by few firm... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Export improvement brings fragile recovery Emerging Asia’s economies fared better in Q1 than Q4. Both Singapore and Taiwan returned to quarterly growth, while Korea’s economy grew at a faster q/q rate. Business and consumer surveys show an... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek election won’t buy much time Greece’s general election should result in the formation of a new Government that is, on paper at least, committed to the terms of the recently agreed second bail-out deal. But with the economy still... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for the Vietnamese dong? After a large devaluation early last year, the Vietnamese dong has been stable against the US dollar for the past 15 months. The fall in the trade deficit and easing inflation mean the currency is... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q1) Supply conditions in the rental sector are tightening as the proportion of households renting reached a 15 year high in Q1. We think that the rental rate may rise slightly further yet, with the... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus The impending collapse of copper prices Hopes of a rebound in demand in the second half of the year are keeping copper prices above $8,000 per tonne despite the huge overhang of inventories in China and the continuing economic and financial... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tweaking our interest rate forecasts We are making some small tweaks to our forecast for interest rates in Latin America. If the global economy weakens later this year, as we expect, it is still likely that most central banks in the... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Constitution key for Egypt’s new president Today marks the beginning of campaigning for Egypt’s presidential elections. While most commentators are focusing on the likely winner, we think that the definition of the exact powers of Egypt’s next... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The unexpected 0.2% m/m decline in February's monthly real GDP means that overall first-quarter GDP growth was probably no more than 2.0% annualised, whereas we had previously hoped for a gain of at... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
