UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Overall broad money growth remains extraordinarily weak. The MPC’s preferred measure of M4 is stronger, but the monetary indicators as a whole point to the need for further quantitative easing. 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rates on hold until politics stabilises The National Bank of Romania’s (NBR’s) decision to keep interest rates on hold today suggests that the easing cycle is on hold until the political situation (and the leu) stabilises. 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update April PMIs suggest Asia’s industrial recovery is losing steam April PMIs for Asia were generally disappointing, and in Australia in particular the index was outright alarming. The weak numbers reinforce our belief that the region’s industrial sector is set for a... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing hit by fresh slump in the euro-zone April’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that industrial output in most of Emerging Europe contracted last month – mirroring the recent deterioration in the survey data from Germany. More worryingly, the... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Property lending (Mar.) & CIPS/Markit construction PMI (Apr.) Net commercial property lending flows were very weak again in March, with the total for Q1 as a whole the worst on record. Clearly, this will do nothing to ease concerns about increased forced sales... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. & Final Man. PMI (Mar./Apr.) The latest data on the state of the euro-zone labour market and manufacturing sector underline the enormity of the challenge facing policymakers to respond the growing calls for growth across the... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Mar.) The post-stamp duty holiday downturn in mortgage approvals for new house purchase may have come to an end in March. But we are doubtful that mortgage lending will now mount a sustained recovery. 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The final release of the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI today turned up some surprises, with new orders much stronger than on the flash estimate and employment far weaker. The headline PMI rose, but... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia’s dwindling surpluses: causes and consequences Russia is unlikely to run large current account surpluses for much longer. But while her days as a ‘super saver’ nation look numbered, we are equally sceptical of Russia’s ability to sustain large... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What is the likely impact of Malaysia’s minimum wage? The Malaysian government used Labour Day to announce the introduction of the country’s first minimum wage. The policy should help to reduce poverty, but it will also squeeze businesses’ profit margins... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Searching for direction Commodity prices as a whole were little changed in April. The drought-related rise in soybean prices has drawn some media interest, but this was more than offset by falls for other agriculturals... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the austerity backlash spreading to the UK? A bad result for the Government in Thursday’s local elections would suggest that the austerity backlash seen in the euro-zone has spread to the UK. But the coalition still seems set to stick to its... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manu. Index (Apr.) & Const'n Spending (Mar.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in April will ease concerns that the softer tone of the recent incoming economic data marked the start of another midyear slump in growth. 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) Peripheral euro-zone economies continue to struggle to make further inroads into their budget deficits. Although this partly reflects temporary factors, the deteriorating growth outlook suggests that... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain: Banking on a bail-out? A fragile banking sector is one factor threatening to put further upward pressure on Spanish government bond yields. And with the economy back in recession and labour market conditions continuing to... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
