Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgaria: back into recession After a boom and bust in domestic demand over the last decade, Bulgaria’s economy appears to be shifting towards export-led growth and away from over-reliance on domestic consumption. But the good... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Back into recession in Q1 The UK returned to recession in Q1, making this the weakest peacetime recovery in a century. Reasonably positive activity surveys for the first quarter raise some doubts about the ONS’s Q1 estimate... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry to outperform In contrast to most other emerging markets, the Mexican IMEF manufacturing survey rose in April. With the relatively cheap peso maintaining the competitiveness of exports and demand from the US... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Apr.) April’s CIPS/Markit report on services echoed the other surveys released this week in suggesting that the second quarter has got off to a soft start. 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Apr.) The pick-up in the UAE’s PMI index in April provides grounds for cautious optimism, not least since it appears that the economy may be benefitting from strong growth elsewhere in the Gulf. Nonetheless... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr.) The underlying trend in house prices has softened notably in the past five months. That seems consistent with reports that mortgage credit conditions are tightening and that the economy is now back in... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Risky assets run out of steam The US stock market paused for breath in April after a strong first quarter, while the yield on 10-year Treasuries declined by around 30bp – more than reversing the rise seen in March. The triggers... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank bond purchases could deepen the crisis Banks’ purchases of sovereign debt have helped to lower some euro-zone governments’ borrowing costs. But they cannot solve the broader debt crisis and may even deepen it by further increasing the... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian manufacturing suffers a relapse April’s manufacturing PMI survey for Brazil contains little in the way of good news. Not only does the drop in the headline index suggest that industrial output is falling once again, but the forward... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Property returns to be dented by the euro-zone crisis Non-euro-zone European economies will not be immune to a fresh recession in the euro-zone. We expect all economies in the region to undergo a sharp slowdown in growth or worse. Barring perhaps Poland... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Recession to act as a drag on occupier markets and rents Over the past few months we have seen little reason to alter in either direction our euro-zone commercial property forecasts. With no resolution in sight to the region’s debt crisis, we think that all... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weakening outlook fuels growth calls The growing calls for euro-zone policymakers to shift their emphasis from austerity to growth have been fuelled by the continued deterioration in the outlook for the economy. Key forward-looking... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) The further rise in mortgage applications for home purchase is an encouraging sign that mortgage-dependent buyers are beginning to contribute to the improvement in home sales. But with credit... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rising wages could be a small bright spot for the economy The increase in labour cash earnings in March could be an early sign of improvement in the Japanese economy. Although base effects played an important part, other labour market indicators suggest... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to change policy stance The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 3.0% today, as was widely expected. The economy looks to have grown strongly in Q1, following floods that brought a slump in GDP late last year... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
