US Economics Weekly Demand for credit strengthening There are still fears of another sharp summer slowdown in economic growth, particularly after another disappointing gain in payrolls in April, but we think that the recovery will hold up better this... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Austerity is the best policy Despite weaker survey data, the ECB is in no hurry to sanction further measures to boost euro-zone growth. It feels the existing accommodative policy stance is providing the region with the basic... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A tricky decision for the MPC Last week’s weak bank lending figures, as well as the softer business surveys for April, have intensified the dilemma facing the MPC ahead of its policy decision on Thursday. For now, we think that... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A bumpy ride for growth We have little doubt that the Japanese economy returned to growth in Q1 but it is looking increasingly likely that growth will slow sharply again in Q2 and we wouldn’t completely rule out a renewed... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth steady, US-Europe divergence persists Business surveys for April suggest the global economy began the second quarter at a steady but subdued growth rate of around 3%. They also suggest the divergence between moderate growth in the US and... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is weak loan demand holding back the recovery? Policymakers’ attempts to stimulate China’s economy have so far centred on increasing the amount that banks can lend. But many are concerned that weak loan demand is hampering these efforts. In this... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The very modest 115,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April will raise fears that the recovery is fading fast, just like it did at this time last year. We still think the true health of the labour... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Balance tips in favour of Polish rates staying on hold It remains a close call, but we think that the weaker run of data over the past couple of weeks has tipped the balance in favour of Polish interest rates being kept on hold at next week’s MPC meeting... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why is iron ore outperforming steel? The price of iron ore has risen by 6% since the start of the year, chiefly due to lower production, while the price of steel fell by 7%. We don’t expect this divergence to continue as higher iron ore... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How is the London office development pipeline holding up? In recent quarters, Central London office vacancy rates have edged higher and the amount of space under construction and set for completion over 2012-13 has risen. This is despite the lack of pre-lets... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market headwinds strengthen The big picture of depressed demand, fragile confidence and an underlying house price trend which is, at best, flat, was little changed this month. But news that the economy has fallen back into... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) April’s slump in the Halifax house price index must be taken with a large pinch of salt. The underlying trend in house prices is soft, and will almost certainly soften further. But, for now, it is... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growing risk of fiscal crises in the oil-poor Arab countries One of the most striking – and often overlooked – developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) following the Arab Spring has been the stark divergence in the fiscal health of the region’s... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB: 'Austerity' wins the day The ECB held its main refinancing rate at 1% today but perhaps more interestingly, appears to have favoured the path of ‘austerity’ in the euro-zone region. Developments on inflation were deemed to be... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three illustrative scenarios for the price of gold The lack of a reliable income stream makes gold notoriously hard to value objectively, whilst the key drivers constantly seem to be changing. The current price is around $1,645 per ounce, having been... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
