Latin America Economics Update Opening up Mexican oil sector could pump growth The emergence of a political consensus in favour of opening up the oil industry in Mexico has increased the likelihood that the winner of July’s presidential election will take steps to increase the... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Increase in Egypt’s FX reserves unlikely to be sustained The increase in Egypt’s foreign currency reserves in April is good news but it is unlikely to last. The fact is that last month’s rise is very small. What’s more, it is largely due to a one-off... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the Q1 fall in all-property capital values a sign of what’s to come? Euro-zone capital values suffered a fall in Q1. Although the decline was small, it was pretty widely based. As a result, it does nothing to alter our view that euro-zone commercial property markets... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Wheat prices have further to fall Wheat prices fell by around 7% last week as concerns about crop damage due to a late winter freeze in the US were replaced by expectations of a bumper harvest. Prices have recovered a little this week... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia on course for a budget surplus in 2012-13 Australia’s government retained its target of returning to a small budget surplus in 2012-13 in today’s federal budget. Solid economic growth and public spending restraint should help the government... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) House prices rose in March and based on leading indicators, the short-term trend could strengthen further in the coming months. Over the year as a whole, however, house prices are more likely to... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek election deadlock raises euro exit risk The failure of the Greek election to produce a new government provides some support to our view that Greece could leave the euro-zone as soon as the end of this year. 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Consumer price inflation probably fell back slightly in April. Reforms to the pricing of water, electricity and gas will probably push up non-food inflation over coming months, but not by enough to... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s sharp rise in German industrial production reduces the risk that the economy is already in recession. But the underlying picture is still one of a sharp slowdown in the sector which will leave... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC won’t pause for long The recent weakness of the activity data has made this week’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision much trickier than looked to be the case a few weeks ago. On balance, we think that the Committee... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Counting the cost of Argentina’s trade barriers Protectionist trade controls in Argentina are already taking a toll on growth in neighbouring countries, with Paraguay and Uruguay hardest hit. In the longer-term, however, it may be Argentina that... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Apr.) The RICS Survey for April suggests that, in the early stages of the second quarter, most measures of housing market activity and pricing pressures softened from an already weak starting point. 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong GDP growth in Indonesia, but will it last? Indonesia recorded another quarter of strong economic growth in Q1, with the economy slowing only slightly compared with the previous quarter. Even after allowing for the likelihood of weak global... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is expropriation a risk in Asia? Recent developments in Latin America have raised concerns in some quarters that the region could be set for another wave of nationalisations. The level of protection offered to foreign investors is... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth set to rise this quarter before fall back We estimate that first-quarter GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualised from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of last year. In addition to weaker growth in consumption and business investment in the first... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
