Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian markets rally, but political conditions are still fragile Egypt made a significant step in its transition yesterday following the announcement that the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Mursi has won the presidential election run-off. Even so, we remain cautious... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Basic divisions will hinder Summit progress Together, the radical plans that are up for discussion at this week’s Summit could be the key to the euro-zone’s survival. But with Germany opposed to providing more funds without central budget... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) Despite the unusually high price of new homes relative to their pre-owned equivalents, new home sales rose strongly in May. The implication appears to be that Americans are becoming more willing to... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What do falling commodity prices mean for Australia? Sharp falls in commodity prices over recent weeks have raised questions over the sustainability of Australia’s mining investment boom. On the plus side, the struggling non-mining parts of the economy... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household borrowing near full throttle Household borrowing has accelerated over the last few quarters, a trend that might continue to push the debt-to-income ratio higher. However, the faltering global economic recovery and drop back in... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bail-out talks are the next key hurdle for Greece The formation of a coalition Government headed by New Democracy has reduced the chances of Greece exiting the euro-zone imminently. But the political situation remains precarious and the Government’s... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The allure of Japanese government bonds Not for the first time, international investors have increased their exposure to Japan’s government and their share of outstanding government securities has grown. However, they have mainly bought... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still reluctant to launch QE3 The Fed appears to be edging closer to launching a third round of asset purchases (QE3), but it will not pull the trigger unless the economy loses more momentum and/or the threat to US financial... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Encouraging news on core inflation May’s inflation figures should help to strengthen the case for the minority pushing for more QE. Although core inflation rose from 2.1% to 2.2%, this primarily reflected base effects. Our seasonally... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) May's slightly larger than expected decline in the official 'core' inflation figure, to 1.8% from 2.1%, provides even greater leeway for the Bank of Canada to refrain from raising interest rates... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Collapse in oil prices will not save world economy The slump in oil prices results from faltering global demand and growing fears of an escalation of the euro-zone crisis. As such, it is wishful thinking to imagine that cheap oil can itself generate a... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pushing down our forecasts The fact that our forecasts for Brazilian growth were already at the very bottom of the consensus range means that we have not had to make significant adjustments in light of weaker than expected... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Where next for oil prices? The $30 slump since early May, which has taken Brent below $90 per barrel (pb), suggests that the global benchmark oil price could hit our end-2012 target of $85 even sooner than we had anticipated... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jun.) June’s German Ifo survey reinforced the message already given by the ZEW and PMI surveys earlier this week that the euro-zone’s main growth engine has stalled. 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending remains volatile The changeable weather, petrol panic-buying and the Jubilee celebrations have all made consumer spending quite volatile recently. However, the underlying picture remains one of a lacklustre recovery. 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
