Emerging Europe Economics Update The return of Russian inflation We estimate that planned hikes in Russian utility tariffs next month and again in September will add a total of around 2.0%-pts to headline inflation, pushing it to 6.5% by the end of the year. The... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jun.) With the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence unchanged in June, the anticipated boost to consumer spirits from the Jubilee celebrations does not seem to have materialised. 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A rate cut but no more With the euro-zone’s debt crisis intensifying again and the economic downturn deepening and broadening, we think that the ECB will opt to cut interest rates by 25bps in July. But the Bank seems... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update No reason to fear rise in US net external liabilities The sharp deterioration in America’s net international investment position last year could be alarming as this is a key indicator of future financial crises. But a closer inspection shows that the US... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update EC survey suggests euro-zone office rental value forecasts on track The latest snapshot of business and consumer confidence across Europe suggests that conditions in euro-zone occupier markets have deteriorated during the second quarter. However, in the short-term... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan to signal weaker growth in Q2 and Q3 The Bank of Japan’s Tankan Survey for June (to be released on Monday) will probably show no improvement in business conditions in the second quarter, and predictions for Q3 are likely to remain weak... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is something amiss with seasonally adjusted house prices? Problems with the seasonal adjustment process, caused by the unusually high share of distressed sales in recent years, may be giving a misleading impression of the strength of house prices over the... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (Apr.) April's payroll survey data, which showed a strong increase in average weekly earnings and a modest gain in employment, point to solid second-quarter wages and salaries growth of around 5.0%... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Past the worst? Our econometric model suggests that at least some of the recent softening in jobs growth was reversed in June, with non-farm payroll employment rising by around 125,000. That would be almost twice as... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech stimulus starts, what next? Czech policymakers have finally responded to the deteriorating growth outlook by cutting interest rates to a record low today. But with little scope for more conventional policy stimulus, we think... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Households hit by further fall in incomes Today’s news on the state of households’ finances revealed that the continued drop in real income is taking its toll on consumer spending, as well as preventing households from taking the steps... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Strong retail spending flattered by auto subsidy Better-than-expected retail sales figures disguise signs of weakness in underlying consumer demand. Sales are being propped up by the eco-car subsidy and are likely to fall sharply after the subsidy... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jun) June’s EC survey mirrors the picture from other timely indicators lately that the euro-zone is in a deepening and broadening recession. This further underlines the need for policymakers to come up... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Oil-poor countries could still outperform in the long term The economic prospects for some of the resource-poor Arab countries are brighter than their current conditions suggest. Although political transitions are proving difficult, we still think that they... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
