UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) The availability of credit in both the residential and commercial property markets fell in Q2. And because of tight wholesale funding conditions, surely related to problems in the euro-zone, lenders... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts (Q1) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) The economy is still estimated to have contracted at the start of the year and it is probably still in recession now. We continue to expect GDP to shrink by 0.5% this year and expand only modestly... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (June) On its own, the latest modest drop in the Nationwide house price index is not hugely significant. But since the turn of the year, the picture of flat house prices seems to have given way to a new... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: further policy easing expected this year The consensus view that the current strength of domestic demand rules out rate cuts in Chile looks to us to be fundamentally misplaced. Instead, in the absence of fresh rises in metals prices... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Lower oil price will not boost euro-zone growth The recent sharp fall in the oil price has prompted us to revise down our euro-zone CPI inflation forecast for this year and next. But this will not prevent the region from falling into a deep... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would euro break-up mean for Emerging Europe? The economic and financial effects of a limited break-up of the euro-zone could knock some 2-3% off the level of Emerging Europe’s GDP by the end of 2013. But a bigger, more disorderly, break-up would... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (May) The stagnation in durable goods orders in recent months is a clear sign that, in response to the easing in global demand, America’s industrial recovery is running out of steam. 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Peña Nieto still in the driving seat Enrique Peña Nieto of the PRI remains on course to register a comfortable victory in Sunday’s Mexican presidential election. But with the PRI now looking unlikely to win a majority in Congress there... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Emerging European dollar bonds likely to lose their shine Despite the escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone, which has taken a heavy toll on bonds issued by troubled governments within the region, the dollar-denominated sovereign debt of emerging market... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun.) June’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that demand on the high street picked up very strongly in June, probably reflecting the impact of the extended Jubilee holiday. However, we do not... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Are lower oil prices a blessing for Asia? The recent collapse in oil prices will help most Asian economies, with oil-intensive Thailand and India benefiting the most. The trouble though is that oil prices are falling because the global... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) The latest fiscal data provide further support to the view that recessions in the southern euro-zone economies are causing the governments there to fall behind their fiscal targets. 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Institutional Investment in Property (Q1) Official data show that UK investing institutions made further net purchases of property in Q1. Since then, however, Property Archive’s data show that these firms have become net sellers again. The... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would leaving the EU damage the UK economy? A referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU seems to be becoming a more realistic prospect. We think that concerns about the economic disruption if the UK were to leave are overdone. In fact, the... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (May) May’s mortgage lending data were unambiguously weak and offered further grounds for concern about the impact that the escalating euro-zone crisis is having on both UK confidence and credit conditions... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
