Asia Economics Update Growth slows in Sri Lanka, further weakness ahead GDP growth in Sri Lanka weakened in the first quarter to its slowest pace in two years. Growth is likely to slow further over the rest of the year due to a combination of tight monetary policy and... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India still likely to cut rates later this year The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly left its repo rate at 8.0% today. Nonetheless, we expect it to cut rates by 50bp by the end of this year as its focus is likely to shift back towards... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek election results do not eliminate exit risks New Democracy’s narrow victory in Sunday’s general election will ease concerns of an imminent and disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone. But it remains unlikely that euro-zone policymakers will... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina's economy shudders to a halt in Q1 The latest data show that the health of Argentina’s economy has gone from bad to worse in recent months. While the official statistics are largely discredited, we estimate that GDP contracted in Q1... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will throwing money at the banks help? The measures announced at Thursday’s Mansion House dinner are a bold attempt to get credit flowing through the economy again. Most crucially, by linking the provision of cheap funds to new lending... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tumbling commodity prices darken outlook The faltering global economy has sent commodity prices tumbling and it seems unlikely they will rebound. Prices might rally initially in response to any further support provided by global central... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slowdown not that much of an exaggeration Chairman Ben Bernanke recently appeared to play down the need for more action from the Fed, arguing that the extent of the US slowdown may have been "exaggerated". Looking at the pattern of the... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A closer look at Japanese bank lending in Asia As the IMF noted in its recent Article IV consultation, Japanese banks have been expanding abroad, particularly in emerging Asia. They have not been alone in doing so, but unlike banks from other... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What’s left in the pot? Our prediction last week that market optimism towards the Spanish banking bail-out would be short-lived was borne out more quickly and decisively than even we had anticipated. Even by the standards of... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Prod'n (May) & Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The 0.4% m/m drop in manufacturing output in May and the slump in consumer confidence to a nine-month low are further illustrations of how rapidly the economy has lost momentumafter a very strong... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Apr.) April's surprising 0.8% m/m decline in the value of manufacturing sales, mainly due to lower volumes, points to another month of modest growth in GDP, possibly as low as 0.1%m/m. We originally assumed... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Who is benefiting most from falling inflation? Most households should be benefiting from the fall in inflation, but lower income households should gain the most as food and energy price inflation ease further. 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s exports take a turn for the worse A recent drop in regional export growth can be attributed to a number of factors, of which slowing Chinese commodity demand may be the most prominent. We expect export revenues to come under further... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Apr.) April’s trade figures are likely to dampen any positive mood following last night’s policy announcements, with an unexpectedly large widening in the deficit compared to March. 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update West End office to residential conversions – too good to last? Strong interest in Central London office to residential conversions is not hard to understand, given that prime house prices command a substantial premium over office usage. But that premium looks... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
