Europe Commercial Property Update Most European office markets to suffer drop in take-up Our recent finding that the investment component of the German national accounts data is related to office take-up volumes seems also to apply in most other European office markets. Accordingly, our... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation outlook improves further If core inflation falls as we expect, it now looks like inflation could get as low as 0.5% or so in the early part of next year. 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Moderate consumption growth may not last We calculate that, after falling by 0.8% m/m in April, retail sales volumes rebounded strongly in May. In addition, recent employment gains and lower gasoline prices likely supported retail sales in... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Industry easing, but housing healing It is striking just how quickly the easing in demand in Europe and certain parts of Asia has taken a toll on America’s industrial recovery. Thankfully, other parts of the economy have been affected by... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery stuttering to a halt The most recent data on Japan have painted a dismal picture of economic conditions in May. Industrial production has fallen sharply as auto makers cut output in anticipation of the end of the auto... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Sensible changes, but no big cure Against a background of low expectations, the changes agreed at the EU Summit to tackle several issues which threatened to inhibit the effectiveness of short-term support measures came as a pleasant... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) April's 0.3% m/m increase in GDP, thanks to a rebound in the volatile mining sector, was slightly stronger than consensus expectations (0.2% m/m) and supports our view that Canada's economy grew... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What effect will Iran sanctions have on oil prices? We maintain our view that the imminent tightening of Western sanctions on Iran is unlikely to have anywhere near as large an impact on global oil prices as many had feared. Demand is weakening and... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela heading for recession in 2013 as oil prices tumble The recent sharp drop in oil prices spells danger for Venezuela. The government may be able to muster sufficient funds to prop up the economy this year. But if oil prices continue to fall and remain... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian Financial Crisis – 15 years on Monday 2nd July marks the 15-year anniversary of the start of the Asian Financial Crisis. In retrospect, the region weathered the crisis and its aftermath well. However, trend growth has slowed... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Further evidence that London office rents will rise this year A composite indicator that aggregates up a range of individual balances from the CBI/PwC Financial Services survey points to continued, albeit modest growth in Central London office rents in H2. This... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Economic growth to remain weak in Vietnam Economic growth in Vietnam in the second quarter of this year remained weak. Easing inflation and looser monetary policy will help, but growth will be held back by ongoing problems in the banking... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest monetary data confirm that the ECB’s earlier liquidity measures are not yet having the desired effect. While money supply growth is picking up, bank lending to the private sector remains... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) Euro-zone CPI inflation was unchanged in June, but this does not alter our view that it will fall sharply over the coming months and the ECB will cut interest rates at its meeting next week. 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Food inflation to continue to fall despite corn price spike The recent jump in US corn prices has led to fears of an upturn in world food inflation. However, agricultural prices in general are still much lower than they were a year ago, and even the surge in... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
