Asia Economics Update What’s gone wrong in India? India’s economic troubles are mostly self-inflicted and result from policy paralysis and opposition to reforms. That is unlikely to change until the 2014 general elections at the earliest 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Plunging gasoline prices to fuel real consumption A further fall in gasoline prices to close to $3 a gallon, from a recent peak of $4, will provide a near-term kick to real consumption growth just at a time when it appears to be fading fast. But a... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The fourth consecutive monthly fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence, to 62.0 in June from 64.4 in May, is a clear indication that the turmoil in equity prices remains a drag on... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Consumption tax (finally) set to rise On Tuesday, the long-awaited increase in Japan’s consumption tax came a step closer as a bill to raise the tax passed Japan’s lower house of parliament. Although a step in the right direction to... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar likely to fall further The recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar is likely to continue this year and next. Our reasons for thinking so are the prospects of further declines in commodity prices and lower expectations... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Apr.) The recent strong upwards momentum in house prices may not be sustained for much longer. Nevertheless, 2012 should mark not only the end of the US house price downturn, but the first year since 2006... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Falling oil prices provide more scope to loosen policy Exports from Asia have been weak so far in Q2 but domestic demand has held up reasonably well. Nonetheless, we doubt that growth in Asia’s trade-dependent economies would remain so resilient if global... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weaker Polish data could bring rate cuts back onto agenda Signs that the Polish economy is slowing should quell calls for rate hikes over the coming months. But growing troubles in the euro-zone mean that interest rate cuts are likely to come back on to the... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain: A €100bn bail-out ‘ceiling’ is not high enough The €100bn bail-out ‘ceiling’ for Spanish banks may provide a smaller ‘safety margin’ than the recent independent audits suggested and won’t address the country’s broader economic and fiscal problems... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (May) May’s public finance figures suggested that the double-dip recession is weighing on the public finances. 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook worsens This month’s data brought further evidence – if any were needed – that the euro-crisis is casting a long cloud over Emerging Europe. Business surveys have deteriorated further, suggesting that growth... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Aussie dollar? The Australian dollar has rebounded in June despite the ongoing slide in commodity prices. The currency’s recovery has probably been due to a subtle shift in investors’ expectations about the relative... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update French REIT valuations reflect downside property risks The current low share prices of French REITs relative to NAVs might suggest that there is value in the sector. But given that French property yields are low, and that the economy is likely to contract... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the household saving adjustment complete? The household saving ratio (saving as a share of income) has risen back to its long-run average, but we doubt that the adjustment is complete. We think that the rise in saving has further to go and... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
