Commodities Update Manufacturing PMIs drag commodities lower The Chinese and euro-zone flash manufacturing PMIs both fell in June. China’s economy should pick up again in the second half of the year but the slump in commodity prices has further to run. 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (May) May’s strong rise in the official measure of retail sales largely reflected the fading of the temporary factors that depressed spending in April and so should not be interpreted as a sign that... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) China’s manufacturing sector slowed again in June, according to today’s flash PMI, as new export orders dropped away and finished goods inventories rose. Prices seem to be falling fast, opening more... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Signs of slowing, but optimism for rapid rebound The Japanese economy appears to be weakening in the second quarter, as business conditions deteriorate and exports flatten off. Hiring has slowed and inflation is set to fall, though in part the... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: growth probably slowed in Q2 Relative to the rest of the region the Russian economy remains in a decent shape, but the first signs of a slowdown are starting to appear. Our estimates suggest that growth eased to around 4.0-4.5% y... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand will not sustain Q1 momentum Today’s GDP data show that New Zealand’s economy grew at its fastest pace since 2007 in Q1. We have raised our 2012 growth forecast in response. However, the strong Q1 performance does not change our... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Jun.) The latest regional figures show that the northern and devolved regions of the UK have begun to bear more of the brunt of the economic slowdown. It seems likely to be only a matter of time before this... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed twists again, but no QE3 yet In the end, the Fed opted to extend its Maturity Extension Programme (aka Operation Twist) for another six months, but there was no new large-scale asset purchase programme (QE3). Nevertheless, the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Coal prices have further to fall The recent weakness of global coal prices is relatively easy to explain, as it reflects a straightforward mix of surging supply, sluggish economic activity, falling oil prices and the boom in the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook House prices will rise this year Driven by strong investor demand, the modest recovery in housing market activity will not only continue into the second half of 2012 and beyond, it will spread to encompass house prices, which will... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too downbeat on Norwegian retail rental values? The strong performance of Norway’s economy in Q1 raises the question whether our retail rental value forecasts may be a touch gloomy. However, given that international retailers are looking to scale... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Latest bazooka may lack ammunition Plans for the euro-zone bail-out fund to purchase sovereign debt look unlikely to have a lasting effect on governments’ borrowing costs unless accompanied by a significant increase in firepower. 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Trade deficit set to increase further Japan’s merchandise trade deficit rose by more than markets expected in May and we suspect that it will increase further still. Energy imports should continue to grow as the country remains reliant on... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q1) There was another strong rise in the number of financial and business services (FBS) sector jobs in Q1. Given the normal lags, and barring an economic meltdown, it seems almost certain that Central... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jun.) & Labour Market Data (Apr./May) June’s MPC minutes left an extension of quantitative easing (QE) within the next month or two looking even more likely. We are sticking with our forecast for another £50bn of gilt purchases at the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
