UK Economics Focus Fiscal challenges to remain beyond current squeeze The UK’s current deficit reduction plan offers to some the happy prospect of a smaller public sector in the future. But the fiscal consequences of the UK’s ageing population may frustrate such... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Storm clouds gathering After a slight pick-up in the second quarter, we expect GDP growth to drop back below 2% annualised in the second half of this year, as the strength in housing investment fades and consumption slows... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What is the optimum re-configuration of the euro-zone? The economically optimal re-configuration of the euro-zone would involve the survival of a core Northern euro incorporating Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Finland, and Belgium. France’s position... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 summit meets low expectations The best that can be said about the Los Cabos summit is that it appears to have been less fractious and better organised than November’s meeting in Cannes. But it seems to have done precious little to... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q2 2012 Business confidence has deteriorated again this quarter, loan demand has dried up, and most households are unusually concerned about their income prospects. However, sentiment towards the property... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) The 4.8% m/m fall in housing starts in May could be an early sign that the recent slowdown in the wider economy has taken some of the wind out of the sails of the improvement in housing market... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation has further to fall Headline CPI inflation dropped below the Fed's 2% target rate in May for the first time in 16 months and, with gasoline prices still falling, it looks like it could be down to around 1.5% within... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain moving quickly towards a sovereign bail-out The recent further rise in Spanish government bond yields underlines the fact that the banking bailout will not address the country’s broader fiscal problems. A sovereign bail-out is all but... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's crisis package underlines dependency on oil revenues The $40bn crisis package that press reports suggest is being prepared by the Russian government should allay fears of a repeat of 2008-09, when the Kremlin was accused of being behind the curve in the... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jun.) June’s plunge in the headline German ZEW index provides further support for the view that the intensifying debt crisis is starting to hit Germany pretty hard. 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The further fall in inflation in May was a nice surprise given that we and the consensus had expected it to hold broadly steady. We continue to expect inflation to be back below its target before the... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The PMI puzzle Manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe have weakened significantly over the past couple of months as the economic outlook has darkened. The one crumb of comfort, however, is that they have not fallen as... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Would euro break-up trigger a Lehman-style global crisis? Our working assumption is that there will only be a limited break-up of the euro-zone, with Greece and one or two other smaller countries leaving this year or next but policy-makers managing the... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Outlook darkens for Egypt as political conditions deteriorate The Egyptian military is tightening its grip over political life in the country, casting doubts over the authority of the new president. Investors should therefore be concerned that recent... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
