US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) May’s 0.4% m/m rise in our seasonally-adjusted measure of CoreLogic house prices marks the fifth successive month in which prices have increased. While the recent strong pace of monthly house price... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack End-June rally on shaky ground June’s price volatility offered something for everyone, with several key commodities seeing unusually large moves either up or down, and, in the case of oil, both over the course of the month. This... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Investors too complacent on political risks Investor concerns over the risk of a disorderly devaluation of the pound are beginning to fade on the back of fresh hopes that the new Egyptian president will pursue an agreement with the IMF. However... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (May) The North/South house price split widened further in May. On an annual comparison, house prices rose strongly in London and there were smaller gains in the East and South East. Elsewhere, house price... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. & Final Man. PMI (May/Jun.) The latest data on labour market conditions and the manufacturing sector in the euro-zone confirm an overall picture of economic weakness. This provides a difficult backdrop against which European... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Would more QE do any good? As part of its renewed drive to rejuvenate the economy, the MPC looks set to announce more purchases of government bonds soon. But further gilt purchases may do little good and could even become... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Case for interest rate cuts is building in Colombia The deterioration in the outlook for Colombia has forced us to review our interest rates forecast. With the economy slowing more abruptly than we had expected, the rate cuts that we had pencilled in... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Which debts would be redenominated after euro break-up? The improvement in sentiment towards the euro-zone following last week’s EU summit is, in our view, likely to prove short-lived. Indeed, we still expect the resolution to the euro-zone crisis to... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Latest PMIs suggest Asian manufacturers are struggling The June PMIs for Asia were disappointing. With global growth set to remain weak and the situation in the euro-zone likely to worsen, we expect conditions in Asia’s manufacturing sector to remain... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jun.) The improvement in the CIPS report on manufacturing in June mainly reflected a bounce-back following May’s unexpectedly sharp fall, rather than any fundamental improvement. The big picture is that the... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey skirting hard landing but vulnerabilities persist Turkish Q1 GDP data showed that the economy has so far avoided the hard landing that we had feared. What’s more, leading indicators point towards a modest improvement in Q2. Nonetheless, with the... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturers in Central Europe feeling the squeeze June’s PMI data provide further evidence that manufacturers in the highly open economies of Central Europe are being hit hard by the crisis in the euro-zone, while those in Russia and Turkey are... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Both China’s manufacturing PMIs weakened again last month but there were some positive signs. 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan less encouraging than headlines suggest The marginal improvement in the Tankan survey of business conditions in the quarter just ended points to only a fragile recovery at best. Large manufacturers may be less negative, but large... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch QE3 to get going There have been plenty of signals over the past few weeks that more quantitative easing (QE) is on its way. Although the Committee could wait until August’s Inflation Report, there seems to be little... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strains begin to emerge in Ecuador’s growth model Ecuador’s headline GDP numbers give a somewhat misleading impression of the true health of the economy. A failure to accumulate savings during a run-up in oil prices means that the dollarised economy... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
