Europe Chart Pack Weaker inflation to provide little relief Euro-zone activity indicators continue to point to a broad-based worsening in economic conditions. Admittedly, the prospect of further falls in CPI inflation (see Chart) following the recent plunge in... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The weakness of money and lending growth is one factor likely to prompt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to announce more quantitative easing (QE) this week. 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the ISM manufacturing index overplaying the slowdown? There are a couple of reasons why the plunge in the ISM manufacturing index in June may be overplaying the extent of the recent slowdown. Even so, the clearer signs that events in Europe and China are... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Greece finance itself after a euro-zone exit? We have long argued that it may be in the best interests of Greece to leave the euro-zone. And while some commentators have suggested that Greece would benefit from waiting until it can fully cover... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How vulnerable is South Africa to the euro-crisis? Compared to 2008-09, South Africa is now less vulnerable to financial contagion as a result of a fresh shock to the global economy, most notably from a break-up of the euro-zone. But at the same time... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are the markets right to shrug off the US ISM? The markets have taken the alarmingly weak US ISM data in their stride, seemingly banking on European policymakers and the US Fed to turn things around quickly. This muted reaction looks complacent to... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (May) May’s decline in mortgage approvals was surely related to the fact that lenders are once again reducing the availability of mortgage credit. Against a backdrop of renewed recession in the UK and the... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Property lending (May) & CIPS/Markit construction PMI (Jun.) Net commercial property lending flows were negative again in May. That was the sixth consecutive month of negative net lending to the sector. And with the eurozone crisis affecting wholesale funding... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Industrial slowdown could soon spread to Mexico The latest fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI suggests that, despite a sharp drop in the currency over the past three months or so, producers in Latin America’s largest economy are still feeling the... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia HSBC/Markit PMI (Jun.) June’s PMI data show that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector continued to grow robustly, bucking the trend in other parts of the world. Nonetheless, the data also suggest that a repeat of last year... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates on hold, but more policy loosening to come The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 3.5% today, but the RBA's loosening cycle is still not over. Weakening external demand and recent falls in commodity prices will slow the... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Jun.) The UAE’s PMI fell slightly in June but the headline index still point towards a modest improvement in private sector activity between Q1 and Q2. 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack German Bunds start to lose their shine The yield on ten year German Bunds rose by around 30bp in June, despite the fact that the yield on ten year US Treasuries barely increased. The rise in the ten year Bund yield may have partly... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global slowdown gathers momentum With the US recovery faltering and prospects for Japan and the euro-zone worsening, there are growing risks that global growth will fall short even of our below-consensus 3% forecast this year. 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Macro-fundamentals point to further falls in commodity prices 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The fall in June’s ISM manufacturing index to below 50 for the first time since the last recession is the surest sign yet that the US is catching the slowdown already underway in Europe and China. But... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
