Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s talks with IMF/EU won’t be plain sailing The passage of Hungary’s new Central Bank Act has lifted the last obstacle to the start of negotiations with the IMF and European Union. But this is merely the beginning. Numerous issues will need to... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a threat is protectionism? The increase in protectionist policies since 2008 has so far had only a modest impact on world trade. Looking forward, however, pressures to adopt more damaging trade barriers may increase... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s monthly bounce in German industrial production does not alter the picture of a sharp slowdown in the sector previously considered the economy’s main engine of growth. 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish bank has little room for manoeuvre A combination of slowing inflation and disappointing Q1 GDP data has led to speculation that the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) might start to loosen monetary policy. We are sceptical. With the current... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property risks remain China’s frozen property market is showing signs of a thaw. Sales took off in the second half of June and prices are rising for the first time in months. Recovery in the sector would help haul the... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why is Portugal the ‘Odd Man Out’? Government bond yields in Portugal have trended lower throughout this year. This contrasts with countries such as Spain and Italy, which have seen increases in recent months. We think this is because... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Second rate cut points to deepening growth concerns Today’s unexpected interest rate cut suggests that policymakers in China are increasingly rattled by the state of the economy. The move’s loosening impact will be amplified by the decision to increase... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Europe a greater drag than China The slowdown in Europe has been a greater drag on the US economy than the softening in China. With the euro-zone on the cusp of a deep recession, this trend will only become more pronounced. The... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB cuts rates but signals inability to do more July’s ECB interest rate cut did little to alter the euro-zone’s bleak economic outlook, particularly as the Bank indicated that it is unlikely to pursue any bolder unconventional measures for now. 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Limits to ‘two-speed’ growth come into focus The recent data support our belief that Latin America is heading for a period of below-trend economic performance. Imbalances in the drivers of growth have left many countries increasingly exposed to... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun. 12) While another fall in mortgage rates saw remortgaging applications surge higher in June as a whole, applications for home purchase remained stuck in the doldrums. Nevertheless, this isn’t preventing a... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Tight credit conditions will weigh on activity There was nothing in the past month’s data to change our view that the UK housing market will experience a long, drawn-out correction over the next few years. But with few signs that the euro-zone... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Political chaos to hold back growth in Kuwait Kuwait’s political crisis is showing no signs of abating as former Prime Minister Sheikh Jabir bin Mubarak Al-Sabah has been reappointed only four days after he resigned. For now, tensions between the... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia keeps rates on hold, but cuts likely soon Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged at 3% today. This came as no surprise. Resilient domestic demand is for now compensating for an export slowdown. Nevertheless, we still expect... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q2) Today’s RICS survey showed that the apparent, slight improvement in commercial property occupier market conditions in Q1 did not last in Q2. Given the weak economic backdrop, this was little surprise... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
