Emerging Markets Economics Update Central Asia’s boom comes with commodity risks This week we participated in an Emerging Markets Forum in Monaco, with a special focus on Central Asia. The key takeaway is that the growth outlook in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remains strong and... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s recovery will remain gradual National income data released this week showed that New Zealand households are still saving at a high rate. However, with real income growth slowing and housing wealth continuing to fall, they are... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Refined product prices pose upside inflation risk The surge in refined petroleum product prices has amplified the inflationary impact of this year’s energy shock, pushing fuel inflation above levels implied by crude oil prices alone. While we expect... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru to hike, but tightening cycle to be relatively short Despite near-term headwinds from El Niño and tight fiscal policy, Peru’s economy is set to record robust growth of 2.8-3.0% in the next few years and outperform most other Latin American economies... 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (September 2026) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation to 3.5% y/y last month is likely to be followed by further increases. While this is partly a result of a rebound in food inflation, sticky services inflation... 8th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (October 2026) The euro-zone economy is growing at a steady pace. While Spain is still the clear outperformer among the larger countries, Germany has finally returned to growth, but France has stalled. Business... 7th October 2026 · 0 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle has further to run The Reserve Bank of India kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike to the repo rate today (to 5.50%), vindicating our long-held view that policy would need to be tightened even as most... 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Oct. 2026) The Reserve Bank of India kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today, vindicating our long-held view that policy would need to be tightened even as most analysts had initially expected the... 7th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Sep. 2026) The small fall in the ISM services index leaves our activity-weighted composite index consistent with GDP growth of around 2.5% in the third quarter, while its S&P Global counterpart points to an even... 5th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) The larger-than-expected drop in Turkish inflation last month, to 29.7% y/y, supports our view that the central bank (CBRT) will begin cutting the one-week repo rate at the MPC meeting later this... 5th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA bond sell-off, Zambia monetary easing now over South Africa has not been immune to the global bond sell-off, but yields on local currency government debt remain low by post-pandemic standards, and we believe improving fiscal fundamentals and SARB... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly So long super peso, Brazil votes, BanRep’s last hike The sharp fall in the Mexican peso this week brought an abrupt end to its recent period of strength and makes us more confident that the next move in interest rates will be a hike. Elsewhere, a strong... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Diesel price risk, triple lock trickery, and an EU reality check A ban on US exports of diesel could raise UK diesel prices from £2 a litre to £3 a litre and mean CPI inflation peaks at just above 5% instead of just above 4%. Meanwhile, the change to the triple... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (September 2026) September’s HICP data show that almost all of the increase in inflation since the Iran war began is due to higher fuel prices and energy bills. There are some signs that the indirect effects of higher... 2nd October 2026 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Activity data provide comfort ahead of rate hike The upbeat activity data released this week will have provided the RBI with some extra comfort ahead of next week's policy announcement. With rising inflation the key focus, we expect a 25bp increase... 2nd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upside risks to our interest rate forecasts are growing The data released this week vindicate the Bank of Japan’s concerns about upside risks to inflation and we expect the Bank to keep hiking rates once every quarter. With few signs that higher interest... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
