US Economics Focus How might a US fiscal crisis play out? The ideal solution to the unsustainable fiscal situation is that Congress commits to a gradual fiscal adjustment. But as that seems unlikely, the big risk is that the Fed eventually finds itself in a... 23rd September 2026 · 23 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hikes, but that’s probably the end of the cycle The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) chose to restart monetary tightening with a 25bp hike to 7.25% today, but the commentary suggests that this hiking cycle may already be over. Higher energy prices... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update US export ban would add fuel to the diesel crisis A ban on diesel exports by the US would exacerbate the existing severe strains in the global diesel market and drive prices outside of the US even higher in the short term. Nonetheless, given that a... 23rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Sep. 2026) September’s flash PMIs suggest the resilience in activity may have faded a touch in Q3, but intensifying inflationary pressures will add to the Bank of England’s unease about the upside risks to... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug. 26) The smaller-than-expected rise in South African inflation in August, to 4.4% y/y, and signs of softer underlying inflation pressures will be welcome news for SARB officials. It will be a close call... 23rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September 2026) September’s big improvement in the euro-zone’s composite PMI supports our view that despite the weakness in the official activity data in July, GDP will increase in Q3. The output price PMIs rose too... 23rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rate hikes nearing their end The RBA will deliver another 25bp hike in September, given continued stickiness in underlying inflation. But unlike markets we doubt further tightening will prove necessary. With the labour market... 23rd September 2026 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set for sluggish recovery as war rumbles on A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. A return to pre-war energy exports is unlikely until at least early next... 22nd September 2026 · 17 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) After a very strong first half of the year, India’s economy is set to cool but annual GDP growth should still average an impressive 7% from 2026-2028. Rising food prices on account of a weak monsoon... 22nd September 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update More easing to follow CBN’s bumper rate cut The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) surprise decision to cut its policy rate by 350bp today, to 23.00%, underlines its confidence that the disinflation process will continue over the coming months... 22nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia: subsidies help absorb the oil price shock Fuel subsidies and price controls have stopped high oil prices from feeding into inflation across Asia’s largest economies. But this has not eliminated inflation concerns altogether and, in India and... 22nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch One more and done for the RBA With some of the upside inflation risks it had warned about now crystallising, the RBA is almost certain to hike rates by 25bp at its September meeting. However, we believe that will mark the end of... 22nd September 2026 · 8 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will lift rates to neutral level of 2% by mid-2027 Japan’s economy has coped with the energy shock well and we expect GDP growth to remain solid. While next year’s sales tax cut could result in inflation falling to very low levels, underlying... 21st September 2026 · 17 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola’s final rate cut, Nigeria and SA to hold rates The Angolan central bank's latest rate cut delivered this week is likely to be its last for some time. Next week, we expect the Central Bank of Nigeria to hold at 26.50%, as inflation remains too high... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A tale of two shocks Events this week highlighted two of the biggest challenges facing Europe's economy: the energy shock and the China shock. We expect euro-zone GDP to keep rising over the coming quarters despite higher... 18th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Aug. 26) Inflation was little changed in August but there are mounting signs that higher energy costs are feeding through and we expect it to rise above the BoJ’s 2% target before long 18th September 2026 · 2 mins read
