So long super peso, Brazil votes, BanRep’s last hike

The sharp fall in the Mexican peso this week brought an abrupt end to its recent period of strength and makes us more confident that the next move in interest rates will be a hike. Elsewhere, a strong showing for Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's first-round presidential election on Sunday would boost local financial markets. The real and equities might gain ~3-4% and there would be further declines in local-currency bond yields. Finally, the decision by Colombia’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp, to 12.25%, probably marks the end of the tightening cycle.