Diesel price risk, triple lock trickery, and an EU reality check

A ban on US exports of diesel could raise UK diesel prices from £2 a litre to £3 a litre and mean CPI inflation peaks at just above 5% instead of just above 4%. Meanwhile, the change to the triple lock and plans for a National Care Service are best thought as swapping one unfunded spending commitment for another. And moving closer to the EU would be much harder and take much longer than Burnham has implied. 

We’re hosting a special in-person roundtable event at our London office on Wednesday 14th October to discuss what Chancellor Healey could announce in his first Budget on 28th October, which taxes may rise and what it all means for the economy and financial markets. (Register here.)