Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike to 3.25% by year-end We expect the RBNZ to lift the Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.00%, at its October meeting, as it seeks to mitigate upside risks to inflation. We’ve also brought forward our forecast for the final... 22nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3 2026) The pullback in headline inflation in Q3 won’t provide much comfort to the RBNZ, given that underlying price pressures continued to build. 21st October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices & Public Finances (Sep. 2026) The rise in CPI inflation from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September (consensus 3.4%, CE forecast 3.6%) mostly reflected higher fuel prices. There were also tentative signs that higher energy prices are... 21st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (October 2026) Growth in the region appears to have weakened sharply in Q3 and, if anything, the risks to our below-consensus forecasts may now lie to the downside. High inflation across the region limits the extent... 20th October 2026 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea should look through the rise in core inflation The recent pick-up in core inflation in Korea is less concerning than may first appear. A large chunk of it can be attributed to the indirect impact of the energy shock and to the global AI boom... 20th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys underscore policy dilemma The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys show renewed trade tensions have disrupted the recovery, with a stark contrast in sentiment between firms surveyed before and after new tariffs were... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) The easing in core price pressures back to a roughly target-consistent rate, paired with recent weak Labour Force Surveys, should keep the Bank of Canada from hiking next week despite Governor Tiff... 19th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation risks show little sign of abating The September CPI and PPI data delivered a decidedly “discouraging” message for the Fed, to use Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee’s words, with core inflation on both measures surprising to the... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Global headwinds threaten UK’s economic resilience While the economy has shown remarkable resilience to higher energy prices and borrowing costs so far this year, we still think the coming rise in inflation will lead to an easing in GDP growth from 1... 16th October 2026 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa MTBPS, Nigeria’s inflation surprise South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is likely to reaffirm the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline at Wednesday’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), although fading... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone energy shock still much smaller than 2022 September’s euro-zone inflation data highlight that the energy shock is still much smaller than that in 2022, and the indirect effects of higher energy costs have so far been negligible. We suspect... 16th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia sanctions shift, Polish core inflation softens The US seems to be moving towards (additional) sanctions relief for Russia, but the macroeconomic consequences are likely to be limited without a rollback of European sanctions (which seems much less... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly PPI weakness masks persistent price pressures September’s decline in producer prices should not be interpreted as evidence that inflation is fading. The fall was driven by a handful of idiosyncratic factors, while a closer look at the data... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Sep. 2026) The upside surprise in producer prices in September was driven in part by the components that feed directly through to the core PCE deflator, with our estimate now pointing to a 0.35% m/m gain. That... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
