Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s tightening cycle is likely at an end The RBA left the door open to further tightening when it hiked rates by 25bp this week. However, policy is already well into restrictive territory and much of this year’s tightening has yet to work... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Sep. 2026) The small fall in the ISM Manufacturing Index to 54.5 in September, paired with the downward revision to the flash estimate of its S&P Global counterpart, gives a slightly less favourable impression... 1st October 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Gauging the risk of persistent inflation Years have past since the 2022 energy shock, and yet much of the thinking behind commentary on the implications of surging energy prices for inflation and monetary policy remains muddled. Relatedly... 1st October 2026 · 16 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (September) The small rise in Swiss inflation in September was largely due to a rise in energy inflation. With core inflation low and limited evidence of indirect effects from higher energy prices, we remain... 1st October 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update No reprieve for the housing market yet Australia’s housing downturn still has further to run, even if there are tentative signs that demand is beginning to stabilise. Weakening housing market conditions should help ease shelter inflation... 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q3 26) The Q3 Tankan survey showed that overall business conditions were the most favourable in decades, which should encourage the Bank of Japan to keep tightening policy at a faster pace 1st October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Downside growth risks to limit rate hikes Trade uncertainty and lower immigration will limit GDP growth to 1.5% next year, keeping core inflation from drifting too far back above target. Accordingly, the Bank of Canada will only hike twice... 30th September 2026 · 14 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Aug. 2026) The data dump today shows that core price pressures are slightly less firm than feared and provides some support to our view that the Fed will pause in October. Nonetheless, with economic activity... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Weathering the energy shock We expect the global economy to remain resilient in the face of the energy shock. In Asia, many governments will continue to shield their economies from the worst of higher energy prices. In most DMs... 30th September 2026 · 46 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone National HICP (September 2026) Data released for Germany, France, Italy and Spain point to an increase in euro-zone headline inflation from 3.2% in August to 3.7% in September. They also suggest that the indirect effects of higher... 30th September 2026 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch RBI poised to kick off hiking cycle The consensus has come around to our view that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hike the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50% at the conclusion of the upcoming MPC meeting on Wednesday 7th October. After... 30th September 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (Sep. 2026) The sharp rise in headline inflation in Poland to 4.0% y/y this month, from 3.4% y/y in August, was driven by food and energy. As a result, we don’t think the MPC will shift towards rate hikes at its... 30th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Public sector still not providing helping hand to RBA The public sector has reined in its profligate tendencies ever so slightly in recent quarters, but the 2026/27 state and federal Budgets point to continued strong growth in government spending. That... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Aug. 26) Measures of core inflation didn’t strengthen any further in August, supporting our view that the RBA’s tightening cycle is likely at an end. 30th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook AI boosting Asian growth, but support will fade Booming exports of AI-related products have helped offset the drag from higher energy prices and should continue to support growth across most of Asia in the near term. The AI boom is not feeding... 29th September 2026 · 25 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (September 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent soft batch of activity data across many parts of Latin America is... 29th September 2026 · 1 min read
