Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to drag its feet a bit longer on hikes The Bank of Canada’s communications suggest it is unlikely to hike in October unless the September CPI data deliver a large upside surprise, or oil prices rise much further. More generally, despite... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation to hit 4% by December We forecast headline inflation in the euro-zone to jump from 3.2% in August to 3.8% in September. And we think that increases in energy, food and core inflation will push it up to 4% by December. But... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook Stage is set for RBI rate hikes After a very strong first half of the year, India’s economy is set to cool but annual GDP growth should still average 7% from 2026-2028, an enviable rate by global standards. Rising food prices on... 16th September 2026 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2026) We doubt that the combination of the rise in CPI inflation, from 2.9% in July to 3.1% in August and the leaps in energy prices in recent weeks are enough to prompt the Bank of England to hike interest... 16th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Diverging interest rate cycles Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well so far and we expect regional GDP growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the consensus on... 15th September 2026 · 21 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug. 26) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 15.4% y/y in August, which keeps the door ajar for a rate cut next week. But we think credibility concerns will win out, and the MPC will keep rates... 15th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2026) EM growth appears to have softened at the start of Q3, but we still think it will accelerate in the coming quarters. As things stand, it doesn’t look like EM central banks will respond to the renewed... 15th September 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Aug. 2026) & Manufacturing Sales (Jul. 2026) The second consecutive firm rise in core price pressures in August, coming against a backdrop of surging oil prices, means it now looks increasingly likely the Bank of Canada will follow other major... 14th September 2026 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (August 2026) India’s headline consumer price inflation jumped to a 20-month high of 4.8% y/y in August and further rises are going to follow, with the renewed surge in oil prices a stark reminder that the risks... 14th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Softening in core goods inflation unlikely to last While core goods inflation continued to ease in August, three key developments this week lend support to our view that this is unlikely to last. 11th September 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Aug 2026) The upside surprise to core CPI in August will result in another above-target-consistent gain in the core PCE deflator and means the Fed looks set to hike next week. 11th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Won’s rebound, CBC to hold fire, China Shock 2.0 The Korean won hit a two-year high this week, helped by profit repatriation by major tech firms and foreign investors scaling back their selling of Korean equities. We think it will make further gains... 11th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2026) The slightly larger-than-expected fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.2% y/y in August was driven by a temporary drop in household energy prices. But even so, it keeps the door open for the central bank... 11th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Can the BoE stay on hold while the ECB and Fed hike? As the Bank of England’s situation is a bit different to the Fed’s and the ECB’s, it is possible for the Bank to go it alone and not raise interest rates. The risks to that forecast, though, are one... 11th September 2026 · 7 mins read
