US Economics Weekly Softening in core goods inflation unlikely to last While core goods inflation continued to ease in August, three key developments this week lend support to our view that this is unlikely to last. 11th September 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Aug 2026) The upside surprise to core CPI in August will result in another above-target-consistent gain in the core PCE deflator and means the Fed looks set to hike next week. 11th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Won’s rebound, CBC to hold fire, China Shock 2.0 The Korean won hit a two-year high this week, helped by profit repatriation by major tech firms and foreign investors scaling back their selling of Korean equities. We think it will make further gains... 11th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2026) The slightly larger-than-expected fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.2% y/y in August was driven by a temporary drop in household energy prices. But even so, it keeps the door open for the central bank... 11th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Can the BoE stay on hold while the ECB and Fed hike? As the Bank of England’s situation is a bit different to the Fed’s and the ECB’s, it is possible for the Bank to go it alone and not raise interest rates. The risks to that forecast, though, are one... 11th September 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger inflation points to further yen gains This week’s producer price and wage data show that inflationary pressure in Japan remains firm. That should set the stage for the Bank of Japan to pick up the pace of policy tightening. Meanwhile, the... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly One more RBA hike should do the job RBA policymakers continued to signal concerns about upside risks to inflation, while survey data showed that firms still face elevated price pressures. We expect a 25bp hike to 4.60% later this month... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ set to accelerate its tightening cycle The Bank of Japan will accelerate its tightening cycle with a hike to 1.25% at its upcoming meeting. With the Bank increasingly concerned about upside risks to inflation, we now expect the Bank to... 11th September 2026 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Tight fiscal stances, deteriorating terms of trade and weakening labour markets mean that Latin American economies will continue to struggle and we think regional growth will come in below 2% in the... 10th September 2026 · 21 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone food inflation to accelerate in 2027 In today’s press conference, Christine Lagarde expressed surprise at the decline in food inflation this year. This decline largely reflects past moves in agricultural commodity prices. But recent... 10th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB will hike again, but will be cutting next year There was no surprise at today’s rate hike by the ECB, but the Bank’s forecast revisions and President Lagarde’s remarks in the press conference suggest that policymakers are minded to raise rates... 10th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Aug 2026) The key components of the PPI that feed into the core PCE deflator were fairly strong in August, raising the chance of the Fed hiking interest rates next week. Admittedly, that still depends on the... 10th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s growth to surprise on the upside Ghana’s economy slowed in Q2 on the back of weakness in the cocoa sector and we expect the effects of the energy shock to dampen growth over the rest of the year. But looser policy should help to... 10th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug. 2026) The surprise fall in Egypt’s headline inflation rate in August, to 14.5% y/y, means the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could still cut rates in Q4 (as we currently expect) but the latest pick up in... 10th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (August 2026) The rebound in Mexican inflation (to 3.3% y/y) has further to run in the coming months and we think the headline rate will end this year above Banxico’s projections this year. Combined with the Fed... 9th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Soft EM food inflation is on borrowed time A severe El Niño and the lagged effects of the energy shock are likely to push EM food inflation up from current lows. Food is unlikely to be as important as core or energy prices in determining the... 9th September 2026 · 3 mins read
