Emerging Markets Economics Focus Gauging the macro impact of El Niño The experience from the two most recent El Niños is that the current one is unlikely to cause a major shock to EM growth, but that it could add to inflation and worsen trade balances, particularly in... 5th November 2026 · 16 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services (Oct. 2026) The small fall in the ISM services index suggests activity in the sector lost some momentum at the start of the fourth quarter. Together with the increase in its manufacturing counterpart, this leaves... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2026) While the economy has been remarkably resilient to higher interest rates and borrowing costs, the coming rise in CPI inflation is likely to dampen real GDP growth from 1.5% this year as a whole to 1.0... 4th November 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (October 2026) October’s euro-zone HICP data confirm that the indirect effects of higher energy costs on food and core inflation remain very small. While these effects will probably build in the coming months, we... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (October 2026) The larger-than-expected rise in Swiss inflation in October was primarily due to a rise in energy inflation. Underlying price pressures remain weak so we are confident in our view that the SNB will... 3rd November 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Oct. 2026) The rise in the ISM manufacturing survey in October suggests that activity in the sector gained some momentum at the start of the fourth quarter, thanks in part to the ongoing AI buildout. The drop... 2nd November 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ labour market is cooling The euro-zone’s unemployment rate is close to a record low, but it has risen slightly and the latest surveys point to the labour market getting looser. This is a key reason why we think the risk of... 2nd November 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly AI trade is driving interest rate expectations Despite this week’s largely as-expected Fed October policy meeting and data showing strong GDP growth and persistent inflationary pressures, investors have pared back interest rate expectations as the... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Indirect effects of energy prices still modest National inflation data published today suggest that the euro-zone inflation rate will have risen to 4.0% in October and there is growing evidence that higher energy prices are pushing up inflation... 30th October 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech & Hungary GDP (Q3) & Poland CPI (Oct.) The preliminary Q3 GDP figures out of Czechia and Hungary were on the disappointing side, although we expect growth in both economies to accelerate in the coming quarters. The Czech figure still... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Restrictive policy will bring inflation to heel With Australia's inflation problem proving stubborn, we expect the RBA to hike again next week. Core market services inflation has accelerated, while rising import costs for electronics threaten to... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity & Labour Market (Sep. 26), Tokyo CPI (Oct. 26) The end-month data rush shows that economic activity is holding up, the labour market remains very tight and inflation continues to strengthen. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our forecast that the... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (October 2026) The world economy remains resilient, with business surveys suggesting that growth has accelerated in recent months. World trade is expanding strongly, helped by the AI buildout, while consumption has... 29th October 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s market rout threatens growth more than inflation The post-election fall in the Brazilian real is likely to add only modestly to inflation over the next year. The bigger concern is the sharp rise in bond yields which, if sustained, threatens to... 29th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Sep. 2026) & GDP (Q3 2026) The strong Q3 GDP and September PCE outturns validate the Fed’s assessment that economic activity is strong and price pressures remain elevated. That said, the slowdown in consumer spending in... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is Bank Indonesia the new CBRT? Bank Indonesia’s apparent struggle to trade off the need to shore up the rupiah and support the economy (perhaps under political pressure) bears some similarities with Turkey’s experience over much of... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
