Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Capacity pressures to persist despite housing weakness This week’s data will likely have reinforced the RBA’s view that tighter financial conditions are weighing on the housing market. But we doubt that housing wealth effects will push consumption much... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will have to respond to stronger inflation The latest Tankan survey showed that output prices hit a record high, driven by the influence of higher energy costs on upstream industries. While higher input costs will be passed on to consumers... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Payrolls blip a drop in the inflationary ocean June's underwhelming Employment Report was still enough to support our view that the labour market is stabilising which, paired with sticky core inflation, should prompt the Fed to reverse last year's... 2nd July 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jun. 2026) The much weaker-than-expected rise in non-farm payrolls in June sows some doubt in our view that the Fed will reverse all three of its “insurance cuts” over the next three quarters. Nonetheless, with... 2nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Council house building unlikely to be as big as Burnham promises Andy Burnham’s plans to deliver a big increase in council house building to post-Second World War levels will be expensive and would almost certainly require a chunky rise in public borrowing. The... 2nd July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update An (updated) primer on the USMCA joint review We think the popularity of the trade agreement among domestic firms, the potential for backlash from an increasingly assertive Congress, and the likelihood of intervention by the Supreme Court should... 2nd July 2026 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Update Weaker yen should lift inflation before long While any boost from higher energy costs to consumer prices will be short-lived, the continued weakening of the yen will provide a more longer lasting boost to consumer prices in Japan. Accordingly... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How much extra borrowing will the bond market tolerate? The markets would probably tolerate a rise in borrowing provided it is not too big (perhaps of up to about £15bn or 0.5% of GDP), it is primarily to invest, and it comes alongside a credible... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Jun. 2026) The stagnation in the Nationwide measure of house prices in June (CE -0.2%, consensus 0.0%) shows that the rise in mortgage rates triggered by the Iran war continues to weigh on the housing market... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing downturn has further to run Australian house prices continued to decline in June, and we think they won’t bottom out until early next year. Although much ink has been spilt about recent housing tax changes, they have yet to have... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ set to hike, but it will be a close-run thing We expect the RBNZ to begin its tightening cycle next week with a 25bp hike. With firms’ pricing intentions elevated, the Bank will want to guard against higher near-term inflation becoming embedded... 1st July 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economic Outlook US strength points to renewed policy divergence With risks surrounding the Iran conflict receding, the focus is shifting back to domestic economic fundamentals, which point to widening growth and policy divergence across the major economies. The US... 30th June 2026 · 45 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Apr. 2026) The stronger-than-expected 0.5% m/m rise in GDP in April extended beyond solely the oil and gas sector and, paired with the advance estimate of a 0.1% rise in May, leaves second-quarter GDP growth on... 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (June 2026) The minutes of the June meeting confirmed that the Board’s decision to leave rates on hold was unanimous. Broadly speaking, however, the minutes revealed that the hold was a hawkish one, with the... 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Labour Market (May 26) 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
