UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2026) June’s flash PMI figures show that the combination of weak activity and lower oil prices are constraining price rises. This lends a bit more support to our view that the Bank of England does not need... 23rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (May 2026) The larger-than-expected rise in headline inflation in May was mostly due to higher fuel and food prices, both of which should prove temporary. With core price pressures still muted otherwise, the... 22nd June 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Prime Minister Resigns (22nd June 2026) A change in leadership following Starmer’s resignation as Prime Minister may alter the size of the state. But it won’t change the fiscal realities. So while there may be talk of big spending increases... 22nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly US-Iran peace deal brings growth risks back to the fore The sharp drop in global oil benchmarks on the back of the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz shifts the balance of risks back towards weaker growth and away from higher inflation... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A new PM won’t change the fiscal realities Andy Burnham's decisive Makerfield by-election victory has taken him one step closer to 10 Downing Street, but a change in Prime Minister won't change the fiscal realities. While there may be talk of... 19th June 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (May 2026) Retail sales held up surprisingly well in May, but we doubt this resilience will last. Even if the US-Iran deal holds, inflation looks set to rise further (perhaps to about 4.0%) and retail sales will... 19th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ on track to hike, One Nation gains ground The 0.8% q/q rise in New Zealand's GDP in Q1 was flattered by residual seasonality and overstated the economy's underlying momentum. Even so, with the RBNZ increasingly concerned about inflation risks... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (May 26) While the government’s fuel price caps have so far kept a lid on consumer prices, we expect the pass-through of higher energy costs to utilities charges and other goods and services to lift inflation... 19th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly The Warsh era begins on a firmly hawkish note Kevin Warsh’s highly anticipated first meeting as Federal Reserve Chair did not fail to live up to expectations. While the promise of significant institutional reform will matter a lot over the months... 18th June 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE talks a good hawkish game, but is unlikely to deliver The Bank of England’s repeated pledge that it is “ready to act as necessary” (i.e. hike interest rates), alongside its decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, was no surprise. But provided the US... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (18th Jun. 2026) The Bank of England’s pledge that it is “ready to act as necessary” by hiking interest rates, alongside its decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, was no surprise. But provided the US-Iran deal... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr./May 2026) Signs that the labour market may be starting to stabilise makes us a bit less confident in our view that second-round effects won’t prevent inflation returning to 2.0% next year. We still think the... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed opens the door to a hike as soon as September The median projection now points to a clear chance of the FOMC hiking and, with Chair Kevin Warsh stating “we’ve got some work to do on the price stability point”, we continue to expect the Fed to... 17th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jun 2026) The median FOMC projection now points to a clear risk of the FOMC hiking this year, but it is likely skewed toward the non-voting hawkish Fed presidents and would probably have pointed to unchanged... 17th June 2026 · 3 mins read
