UK Economics Weekly Tentative housing recovery a positive sign for wider economy We still think CPI inflation will rise from 2.8% in May to a peak of around 3.5% in early 2027 and that the resulting drag on real activity has yet to come. But tentative signs of a turnaround in the... 10th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly GPIF set to come to the bond market’s rescue Finance Minister Katayama’s announcement that the government will encourage pension funds, including the GPIF, to invest more in Japanese financial assets has helped unwind the spike in bond yields... 10th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will Australia become an agrarian economy again? One Nation’s economic policies focus strongly on those sectors that dominated Australia’s economy in the past rather than on those that will determine its future. Unfortunately, the party’s policies... 10th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank can afford to be patient Lower oil prices reduce the pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates at the expense of the economy, which remains fragile despite some recent signs of improvement. We therefore still expect the... 9th July 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun. 2026) The modest rebound in buyer sentiment in June chimes with other evidence that suggests a turnaround in the housing market is underway and the downside risks to our forecast for house prices to rise by... 9th July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jun. 16-17) The minutes of the Fed's mid-June meeting confirm a hawkish pivot across the entire rate-setting committee. In a scenario that resembles our baseline for the economy, where the labour market remains... 8th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Oil and US equities no longer have much of a MoU Today’s surge in oil prices, prompted by Donald Trump’s declaration that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran is “over”, has taken a toll on the S&P 500. Our sense, though, is... 8th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals tightening cycle will be gradual The RBNZ’s decision to kick off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today came as little surprise. While the Bank made clear that further increases are likely, its emphasis on returning policy only... 8th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (July 2026) As expected, the RBNZ kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today. Its messaging broadly comports with our view that rates will rise gradually to a peak of 3.25% next year. 8th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (May 2026) The sharp widening in the trade deficit in May was largely down to price effects and can therefore be looked through. That said, the surprise, large fall in computer imports poses a downside risk to... 7th July 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Lloyds House Prices (Jun. 2026) The modest rise in the Lloyds measure of house prices (rebranded from Halifax) in June suggests that the weak housing market may be starting to turn a corner. This will have further to go if the... 7th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (May 2026) The slowdown in wage growth in May is unlikely to deter the Bank of Japan from tightening policy further in the months ahead. 7th July 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys highlight vulnerability outside of oil sector The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys point to an economy tarnished by the oil price shock, with improvements in activity isolated to the oil sector. Activity in the non-oil economy should... 6th July 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus AI and the UK Economy: Early signs, bigger gains ahead AI is starting to influence the economy, but so far this has been confined to a few sectors and been too small to show up in overall GDP, investment, employment or productivity. But if we’re right in... 6th July 2026 · 18 mins read
Japan Economics Update 10-year JGB yield will climb to 3% before long The latest available data are consistent with our long-held view that Japan’s budget deficit has narrowed far more rapidly than many thought. Nonetheless, with the BoJ set to lift interest rates to 2%... 6th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Burnham on the defensive, it’s markets not rules that matter How to achieve the government’s commitment to raise defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 will be a far bigger problem for prospective PM Burnham than the £4.7bn defence “black hole”. And a bit of... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
