US Fed Watch Rate hikes coming, but not until September The benign June price data brought the Fed some more time to gauge how inflation evolves over the coming months. If inflation pressures remain as persistent as we expect, the Fed will begin tightening... 23rd July 2026 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: BoE to hold rates as energy prices keep rate hikes in play The Bank of England will almost certainly keep interest rates at 3.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 30th July and the latest rebound in energy prices will ensure that it continues to stress that... 23rd July 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (June 2026) With the labour market still holding its own, our forecast that the RBA will hike rates again in August remains alive and well. 23rd July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Core goods inflation unlikely to fully normalise The PPI and import price data suggest that the AI buildout and supply constraints from the war in Iran will prevent core goods inflation from fully normalising, even as tariff effects ease. 22nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth seems to have accelerated after the start of the Iran War and there are early signs that... 22nd July 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2026) The easing in CPI inflation from 2.8% in May to a 14-month low of 2.6% in June is unlikely to last long. The lagged effect from high energy prices will probably lift inflation above 3.0% in September... 22nd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Jun. 26) Japan’s crude oil imports rebounded strongly in June but with the Strait of Hormuz now closed again, they will remain below pre-war levels for a while yet. T 22nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2026) The outlook hinges on the outcome of CUSMA negotiations, with the Trump administration’s latest 50% tariff announcement underscoring the risks. For now, we still think an agreement will be reached at... 21st July 2026 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Lower mortgage rates and tight supply to boost prices We suspect house prices will rise only gradually over the rest of 2026 and end up around 1.5% higher in Q4 2026 than a year earlier. But our view that Bank Rate, and therefore mortgage rates, will... 21st July 2026 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Labour Market (May/Jun. 2026) June’s public finances were a rare piece of good news for the PM Burnham and Chancellor Healey, but with the UK’s debt burden still rising, there is limited scope for extra public borrowing. Meanwhile... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2026) The pickup in price pressures last quarter was not particularly broad-based, with measures of core inflation still well behaved. Accordingly, we don’t think there’s a strong case for the RBNZ to hike... 21st July 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jun. 2026) The Bank of Canada will be pleased to see core price pressures remained subdued last month, even with some FIFA World Cup-related boost. With Governing Council reiterating their willingness to look... 20th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Venezuela not yet eating Canada’s oil lunch The renewed rise in oil prices is positive news for Canada’s oil sector, but the latest US import data highlight the longer-term risks from greater Venezuelan production. 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Banks and the bubble in AI Financials have been the best-performing ‘cyclical’ sector of the S&P 500 since the ongoing rotation out of information technology began on 2nd June. Indeed, they have been the second-best performer... 17th July 2026 · 4 mins read
