Japan Economics Weekly BoJ on track to hike despite Ueda’s absence Following his unexpected hospitalisation, Governor Ueda will miss next week's BoJ meeting. However, with inflation pressures continuing to build, there will almost certainly still be a majority in... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed on hold as Warsh faces a fractious FOMC Kevin Warsh’s first meeting back on the FOMC should be an eventful one, with the new Chair trying to tame a committee that is sounding a lot more hawkish. Indeed, we now judge that the Fed’s next move... 11th June 2026 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (May 2026) The May PPI data brought worse news for the Fed than was the case with the CPI data, with large gains in the portfolio management and airfares components pushing our estimate for the core PCE deflator... 11th June 2026 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: BoE may not follow the central bank crowd in raising rates A hold on Thursday 18th June looks nailed on and we expect interest rates to stay at 3.75% for the rest of the year. But rate hikes in July and/or September can’t be ruled out. Either way, the... 11th June 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (May 2026) While May’s RICS housing market survey shows that the worst of the falls in buyer sentiment may be in the past, a number of leading indicators continue to suggest that the risks to our forecast for... 11th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada to remain on hold this year The slightly dovish shift in language from the Bank of Canada today provides support to our forecast that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year. 10th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jun. 26) The slightly dovish shift in language from the Bank of Canada today provides support to our forecast that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year. 10th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (May 2026) The moderate 0.21% m/m rise in the core CPI in May was not as bad as we feared and the move was relatively narrow in nature, which should reassure the FOMC that price pressures are not broadening... 10th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Pace of tightening set to accelerate BoJ Board members have signalled that they will lift the policy rate next week. And with inflationary pressures set to strengthen, the Bank will probably accelerate its tightening cycle thereafter. We... 10th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Producer Prices (May) The continued strength in producer price inflation makes it all but certain that the Bank of Japan will hike rates at its meeting next week. We also expect the Bank to speed up the pace of policy... 10th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Could bonds bring equities back down to Earth again? Last Friday’s pullback in US equities, as Treasury yields soared in the wake of a strong employment report, suggests bonds might be the straw that eventually breaks the stock market’s back. 9th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Have AI effects shifted to boosting US employment? It is hard to accurately gauge the extent to which the adoption of AI is affecting payrolls, but the recent improvement in jobs growth in those industries most exposed to AI suggests any negative... 9th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (May 2026) The rise in existing home sales in May was a bit stronger than we expected but, given the further increase in mortgage rates in recent weeks, we remain concerned about the downside risks to our... 9th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Apr 2026) Although the trade deficit was little changed in April, our calculations suggest that gold-adjusted export volumes far outpaced import volumes. That leaves net trade on track to make an even stronger... 9th June 2026 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hold fire for now, but leave its options open The RBA will leave rates on hold at 4.35% at its meeting next Tuesday. With the economy showing signs of cooling, the Bank will likely signal a cautious approach to any further policy adjustment... 9th June 2026 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed set to hike this year With Fed officials sounding more hawkish than we originally anticipated and downside labour market risks rapidly diminishing, we now expect the Fed to hike interest rates this year. 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
