Canada Economic Outlook CUSMA uncertainty to slow recovery, delay rate hikes Uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will slow the recovery, with average annual GDP growth a below-consensus 0.5% this year. A return to firmer growth of 1.7% in 2027 should see core price... 29th June 2026 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2026) May’s money and lending data show that households continued to save a bit less to offset some of the hit to their real incomes and have delayed, or perhaps even cancelled, house purchases in response... 29th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) The continued weakness in some leading indicators of buyer sentiment suggests that the risks to our view that house prices will rise by 1.5% in the year to Q4 2026 lie to the downside. However, if... 29th June 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Sluggish infrastructure push emblematic of broader woes The announcement that the Major Projects Office will grant three infrastructure projects "national interest" status later this year means little for the growth outlook given there are still multiple... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly AI boom supporting growth and pushing up prices The fall in WTI to below $70pb has reduced the urgency for the Fed to raise rates, with futures shifting to pricing in a 70% chance of a 25bp hike by the September meeting, down from 95% last week... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Devolution does not guarantee economic growth The political appeal of more devolution is clear, but the economic benefits are not. So should Andy Burnham become Prime Minister and pursue devolution, he may accrue some political points but the UK... 26th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA still set to hike, housing tax changes pass Australia’s latest activity and labour market data continue to point to softer momentum, but the CPI figures suggest that underlying inflation pressures have not yet been tamed. Accordingly, we still... 26th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Investment splurge may lift bond yields further The government’s new investment target may well turn out to be smoke and mirrors. But large-scale attempts to influence private investment decisions could result in resource misallocation and lower... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Summer festival fever to keep hiring momentum intact The June Employment Report, due a day earlier than usual (Thursday July 2nd), is likely to show another solid 110,000 gain in non-farm payrolls, with hiring supported by major summer events, including... 25th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI boom to power growth and keep core inflation firm The economy is in the middle of an AI-related capex boom and, with some of the prior policy-related headwinds now fading, we expect average annual GDP growth to pick-up to an above-consensus 2.5% next... 25th June 2026 · 17 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (May 2026) The 3.4% rate of core PCE inflation in May likely marks the peak of this cycle, as tariff effects fade and the recent plunge in oil prices weighs on several categories, including airline fares. Even... 25th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to hike as inflation concerns dominate The RBA has already shifted policy back to restrictive territory and we expect it to tighten settings a bit further, as it seeks to ensure that activity slows sufficiently to bring inflation under... 25th June 2026 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending & Labour Market (May 26) The May household spending and labour market data don’t provide a strong signal about the RBA’s next move. 25th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (May 2026) The continued acceleration in underlying inflation in May means that the RBA can’t declare victory in the war on inflation just yet. Accordingly, we continue to believe it will deliver one final 25bp... 24th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update AI buildout to continue boosting world trade Exports of AI goods now make up a third of growth in overall global exports and they are likely to remain a key driver of trade into 2027. Meanwhile, the move from Section 122 to Section 301 tariffs... 23rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Fall in inflation to 2.0% in 2027 to trigger rate cuts We doubt the Bank of England will follow in the footsteps of some other central banks by raising interest rates. In fact, our economic forecasts are consistent with it cutting rates from 3.75% to 3.00... 23rd June 2026 · 15 mins read
